NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc89197584283ab54ad8feb63705952d8a31a21d3392f47143d9b11a9ab47c2a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 913.62$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.6 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed Over | 57c | 854.56$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 756.31$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.66 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked Over | 56c | 681.81$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.81 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…e386backed Under | 44c | 658.9$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.98 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 599.99$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 28c | 577.7$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.31 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 22c | 550.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over | 57c | 537.3$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.88 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Under | 44c | 470.15$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.29 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 20c | 459.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Over | 56c | 437.97$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.33 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 71c | 370.48$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.66 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 43c | 360$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 77c | 295.86$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.05 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 43c | 278.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.59 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…5898backed Under | 45c | 220.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…271bbacked Over | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 44c | 136.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Over | 57c | 126.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…a5e9backed Under | 45c | 120.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 51c | 116.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 39c | 112.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 62c | 99.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 38c | 99.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…500fbacked Under | 44c | 99.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 66c | 85.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Under | 46c | 83.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 43c | 75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b9…a7afbacked Over | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 62c | 63.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 57c | 54.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 49.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Under | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f0…d7a4backed Under | 45c | 48.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 38c | 48.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Over | 57c | 47.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 305 | 52.5%160 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…9c69backed Over | 56c | 45.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Under | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 43c | 37.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 71c | 34.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…8064backed Under | 45c | 32.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 50c | 26.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Under | 50c | 25.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 16.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5this page
- Flyers vs. PenguinsFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 3.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-2.5)Flyers won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.