NHL · resolved market

Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccb5fb7d7a674fc609b444c141108ee546146a65546aed40ec286b7d4b1d49d8

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,642
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,477

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,642 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NHL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe401…7b88backed Under	67c	1,270$852 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$417.98	3,704	50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L	+105.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Over	47c	1,237$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583.27	422	54.3%229 W · 193 L	+18.3wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under	23c	1,138$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$872.63	1,024	48.4%496 W · 528 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85a4…9aabbacked Under	51c	1,100$561 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$539	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	66cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	76c	673.79$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$508.77	2,754	47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L	+11.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Over	28c	669.79$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.13	52	40.4%21 W · 31 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Over	48c	669.13$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.02	261	54%141 W · 120 L	+7.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	76c	593.69$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.32	1,140	51.5%587 W · 553 L	+40.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	52c	586.03$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.91	2,314	46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Under	52c	563.85$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$272.55	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b7…500fbacked Under	24c	505.6$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$383.2	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over	27c	412.29$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.57	385	51.4%198 W · 187 L	+16.7wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Over	32c	328.11$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.97	295	33.6%99 W · 196 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e37…212abacked Over	49c	285.73$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.01	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	+14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	25c	282.24$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.45	2,112	42.9%907 W · 1,205 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8735…162fbacked Over	45c	215.27$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.7	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-4.9wins	-0.33per pick	46cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under	53c	214.56$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.94	254	49.6%126 W · 128 L	-15.0wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1752…d274backed Over	32c	200$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf58c…0b79backed Under	69c	160.12$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.23	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Over	76c	155.39$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.56	104	38.5%40 W · 64 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under	39c	145.32$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.27	155	60%93 W · 62 L	+13.3wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under	70c	134.56$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.49	618	48.1%297 W · 321 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Under	80c	133$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.79	83	47%39 W · 44 L	-9.4wins	-0.11per pick	58cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Over	76c	117.57$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.61	214	63.1%135 W · 79 L	+16.9wins	+0.08per pick	55cpaid	+11%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Over	77c	96$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.72	80	60%48 W · 32 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…7b98backed Under	51c	87.01$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.64	49	61.2%30 W · 19 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over	46c	74.9$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.8	823	53.1%437 W · 386 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Under	75c	73.01$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.24	498	51%254 W · 244 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over	76c	72.5$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.05	145	51%74 W · 71 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd281…d824backed Under	24c	71.13$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.95	100	33%33 W · 67 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Under	68c	63.36$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.07	393	44.8%176 W · 217 L	+23.3wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xab41…c453backed Over	41c	59.21$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.17	1,431	58.3%834 W · 597 L	+81.0wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	62c	58$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.98	920	49.7%457 W · 463 L	+14.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2494…17b3backed Under	23c	53.41$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.13	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Over	25c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	83	45.8%38 W · 45 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Over	31c	49.39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.1	145	42.8%62 W · 83 L	+9.4wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0764…41d1backed Over	40c	48.2$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.28	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce5…a07fbacked Over	34c	48.02$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.33	55	56.4%31 W · 24 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab75…9190backed Under	58c	45.81$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.25	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d4…523cbacked Under	25c	45.65$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.24	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Under	68c	45.58$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.37	33	66.7%22 W · 11 L	+3.4wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa77a…e6f9backed Over	79c	41.86$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.95	151	45%68 W · 83 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Over	77c	36.29$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.87	120	45.8%55 W · 65 L	-7.0wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c76…2632backed Under	72c	30.78$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.71	88	50%44 W · 44 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked Over	76c	29.12$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.16	71	67.6%48 W · 23 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	61cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bf2…3932backed Over	75c	29.1$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.83	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	69cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x108a…517abacked Under	52c	29.06$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	59	61%36 W · 23 L	+6.6wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x78a0…61bebacked Over	76c	23.95$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.76per pick	76cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31c8…9487backed Under	77c	20.43$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.67	78	52.6%41 W · 37 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Over	77c	18.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.53	103	46.6%48 W · 55 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over	75c	16.75$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-2.7wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6e0…99efbacked Over	76c	15.47$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.76per pick	76cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa97…efb8backed Over	76c	13.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	73cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event