NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a2e392a2d8d3398c0567cb201c4bf87517af9ceea9263af78783429a331f515
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Penguins, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Flyers | 64c | 1,288$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.71 | 305 | 52.5%160 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Penguins | 34c | 769.45$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.5 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Flyers | 66c | 636.12$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.28 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b99…4b3abacked Penguins | 36c | 400.03$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2262…3550backed Flyers | 65c | 351.42$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…594bbacked Penguins | 36c | 342.49$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Flyers | 65c | 326.01$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…83e6backed Flyers | 65c | 301.23$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Penguins | 36c | 267.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Flyers | 65c | 225.92$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.07 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f99…7e86backed Penguins | 7c | 212.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5788…fb06backed Flyers | 65c | 176.22$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.68 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins | 35c | 136.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Flyers | 68c | 127.53$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Flyers | 76c | 99.41$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Flyers | 67c | 98.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6ee7backed Penguins | 36c | 96.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Penguins | 41c | 86.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Penguins | 31c | 77.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2857…3e27backed Penguins | 36c | 54.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Penguins | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Flyers | 75c | 42.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Flyers | 70c | 42.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe665…79bbbacked Flyers | 65c | 37.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Flyers | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Flyers | 73c | 29.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…7a67backed Flyers | 73c | 25.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…884cbacked Flyers | 65c | 25.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Flyers | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Flyers vs. PenguinsFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 3.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-2.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.