Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x901ede1a5fd724435a2583c79673ad1c869762a9e3fdd9e3cdcaac101558dc7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shiftersof Team Heretics, Shifters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed Team Heretics | 39c | 31,097$11,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,988.48 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4d…0bd2backed Shifters | 61c | 18,867$11,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,345.16 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked Shifters | 70c | 9,677$6,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,903.26 | 991 | 49.1%487 W · 504 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Team Heretics | 30c | 9,266$2,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,779.66 | 423 | 33.8%143 W · 280 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Shifters | 62c | 8,381$5,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,184.77 | 607 | 54.7%332 W · 275 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Shifters | 62c | 6,600$4,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,508 | 166 | 55.4%92 W · 74 L | +15.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Team Heretics | 36c | 2,386$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.76 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Team Heretics | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 363 | 49.3%179 W · 184 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02cf…813cbacked Shifters | 64c | 1,406$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee46…faa0backed Team Heretics | 30c | 1,296$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.71 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Shifters | 70c | 1,167$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.45 | 657 | 51.6%339 W · 318 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…21acbacked Shifters | 70c | 1,063$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.78 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Heretics | 30c | 1,060$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.02 | 1,237 | 48.1%595 W · 642 L | +25.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…33a4backed Team Heretics | 38c | 818.42$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Heretics | 20c | 815.28$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.05 | 3,066 | 44.6%1,366 W · 1,700 L | -97.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Shifters | 62c | 750$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Heretics | 38c | 730$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.75 | 800 | 49.9%399 W · 401 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Shifters | 63c | 713.68$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.06 | 1,817 | 51.1%929 W · 888 L | +52.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Shifters | 63c | 655.38$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.62 | 967 | 54.4%526 W · 441 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2b4dbacked Team Heretics | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Shifters | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 666 | 54.2%361 W · 305 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Shifters | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 1,026 | 47.9%491 W · 535 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…8149backed Team Heretics | 38c | 446$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.34 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Team Heretics | 38c | 410.53$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 252 | 34.9%88 W · 164 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Shifters | 70c | 350$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 662 | 63%417 W · 245 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Team Heretics | 30c | 349.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,206 | 44.7%539 W · 667 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Team Heretics | 36c | 277.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 240 | 48.8%117 W · 123 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Shifters | 66c | 259.87$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 352 | 50.3%177 W · 175 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Shifters | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +9.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Shifters | 63c | 196.46$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.51 | 1,398 | 49.4%691 W · 707 L | -20.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Shifters | 70c | 173.61$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 292 | 52.7%154 W · 138 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…c2d7backed Shifters | 60c | 163$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…8259backed Team Heretics | 32c | 156.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 386 | 44.3%171 W · 215 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Team Heretics | 13c | 153.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 745 | 41.1%306 W · 439 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…5079backed Team Heretics | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Team Heretics | 38c | 149$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11ca…2737backed Shifters | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2955…7639backed Team Heretics | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Team Heretics | 38c | 121$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Team Heretics | 30c | 106$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 379 | 47.5%180 W · 199 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Shifters | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 519 | 54.9%285 W · 234 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Team Heretics | 40c | 96.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Shifters | 63c | 90.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 262 | 43.1%113 W · 149 L | -22.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe93a…4739backed Team Heretics | 38c | 88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Team Heretics | 31c | 85.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 376 | 45.5%171 W · 205 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked Shifters | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…f1f3backed Shifters | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed Team Heretics | 38c | 72.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d72…a791backed Team Heretics | 39c | 71.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Shifters | 77c | 64.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd233…14f3backed Team Heretics | 38c | 61.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…16e6backed Team Heretics | 28c | 60.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Team Heretics | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 386 | 57.5%222 W · 164 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Shifters | 64c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Team Heretics | 40c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 148 | 38.5%57 W · 91 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1612…9dedbacked Shifters | 60c | 49.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Shifters | 77c | 44.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 259 | 67.6%175 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Shifters | 69c | 44.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 395 | 51.4%203 W · 192 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed Team Heretics | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc126…4079backed Team Heretics | 38c | 36.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdccf…faeabacked Shifters | 64c | 35.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…8fe4backed Team Heretics | 37c | 35.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Shifters | 70c | 31.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Team Heretics | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 273 | 56.4%154 W · 119 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Shifters | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 275 | 49.8%137 W · 138 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…6715backed Shifters | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a7…3172backed Shifters | 63c | 19.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Shifters | 66c | 18.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 443 | 42.9%190 W · 253 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Shifters | 63c | 18.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f0…9e29backed Shifters | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Shifters vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonShifters won
- LoL: Shifters vs Team Heretics - Game 1 WinnerShifters won
- LoL: Shifters vs Team Heretics - Game 2 WinnerShifters won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.