Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90432424944d0f0b535aaf12a93a0d23da03cdfaad60d1118229291eb4407be6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 34c | 1,566$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.7 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed Yes | 32c | 1,088$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.41 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 68c | 889.31$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.68 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 33c | 699.99$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 640.24$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.44 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 32c | 619.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 528.72$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 76c | 469.29$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.35 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 447.73$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 385.59$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 382.6$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 237.1$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 235$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 47c | 216.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 63c | 214.88$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f53…4834backed Yes | 18c | 192.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 190.71$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 180.31$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 62c | 158.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 7c | 151.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 16c | 147.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 145.65$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 63c | 143.95$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 143.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 133.08$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 78c | 128.93$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 16c | 122.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 68c | 121.82$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 114.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 35c | 114.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 70c | 112$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 76c | 104.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 16c | 103$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 72c | 99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 21c | 90.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 88.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 88.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 37c | 87.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 76c | 84.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 81.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 35c | 78.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…b658backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 30c | 71.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…3ae7backed No | 67c | 68.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 68c | 64.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 68c | 56.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 72c | 55.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 55.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…fd5abacked Yes | 36c | 53.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 49.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 49.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58f…cb99backed Yes | 29c | 47.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 21c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 45.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 43.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1718…957abacked Yes | 36c | 41.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 49c | 40.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 66c | 39.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 67c | 38.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 43c | 38.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 41c | 36.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 66c | 35.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 34.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 59c | 34.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 31c | 33.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1870…86acbacked Yes | 35c | 33.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 38c | 32.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 34c | 31.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 60c | 30.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 29.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 80c | 28.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba4…0e0dbacked No | 68c | 26.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 25.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 20.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 62c | 20.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.