Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31463d9d65e354988e6e97386cd0e11dd5fcbcfa91561703e51d15020a5fee5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 51c | 2,513$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.78 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 45c | 1,029$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.31 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 55c | 912.11$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.11 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 723.41$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.87 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 52c | 624.33$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.86 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…faeebacked No | 28c | 567.81$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.09 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 564.27$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 528.79$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed No | 7c | 409.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +193.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 51c | 381.15$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.76 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 329$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 309.63$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 45c | 308.27$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.21 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 282.69$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 70c | 265.35$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 76c | 254.75$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 51c | 251.18$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.69 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 230.41$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 65c | 211.64$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 207.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 41c | 207.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 43c | 191.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 34c | 182.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 64c | 181.24$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 48c | 167.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 163.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 62c | 162.65$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 47c | 162$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 33c | 149.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 57c | 147.61$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 10c | 146.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 64c | 139.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 49c | 138.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 136.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 135.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 31c | 130.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…bd21backed Yes | 54c | 125.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 64c | 117.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 47c | 114.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 30c | 113.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 40c | 113.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 105.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 47c | 100.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 33c | 98.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 97.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 95.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 50c | 92.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 46c | 89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 59c | 86.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 39c | 79.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 77.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 46c | 77.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 76.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 48c | 72.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 45c | 66.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 53c | 61.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 55c | 58.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 51c | 58.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 53.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 52c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 28c | 52.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 46c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…ce3dbacked Yes | 63c | 51.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 79c | 50.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 49c | 50.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe4…f53bbacked Yes | 59c | 50.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 42c | 49.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 32c | 47.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 35c | 45.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…fd5abacked Yes | 57c | 45.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 50c | 37.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 30c | 36.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 41c | 36.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f244backed No | 58c | 34.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 34.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 43c | 34.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 65c | 34.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f53…4834backed Yes | 78c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 30.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…123abacked Yes | 55c | 30.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.