WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Sky (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x908fca1920636798c835d01268397da0441a555a7e1f54b1c5c13ce72b14942a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Skyof Chicago Sky, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Chicago Sky | 53c | 7,675$4,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,608 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 48c | 7,589$3,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,609.73 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Chicago Sky | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Sky | 49c | 3,403$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.4 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed PortlandFire | 52c | 2,851$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.55 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed PortlandFire | 47c | 2,043$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.37 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Chicago Sky | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed PortlandFire | 47c | 1,600$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.22 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked PortlandFire | 50c | 1,532$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.79 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…7501backed Chicago Sky | 53c | 1,449$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.72 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed PortlandFire | 50c | 688.42$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.48 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0758…9532backed PortlandFire | 48c | 630$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked PortlandFire | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 48c | 430.45$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.86 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Chicago Sky | 52c | 421.94$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.05 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked PortlandFire | 55c | 421.83$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.26 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed PortlandFire | 49c | 416.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.59 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Chicago Sky | 57c | 407.02$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.02 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…e453backed PortlandFire | 44c | 228.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed PortlandFire | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed PortlandFire | 53c | 150$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Sky | 49c | 131.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…0b74backed PortlandFire | 49c | 102.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked PortlandFire | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…728abacked Chicago Sky | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Sky | 56c | 94.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed PortlandFire | 53c | 89.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Chicago Sky | 47c | 77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed PortlandFire | 52c | 72.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Chicago Sky | 56c | 66.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked PortlandFire | 48c | 61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed PortlandFire | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago Sky | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked PortlandFire | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +8.2wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked PortlandFire | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked PortlandFire | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Chicago Sky | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed PortlandFire | 53c | 40.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed PortlandFire | 49c | 38.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…b12cbacked PortlandFire | 45c | 37.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Sky | 48c | 33.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefe…7ff4backed PortlandFire | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed PortlandFire | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…f0e0backed PortlandFire | 50c | 29.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed PortlandFire | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9176…d962backed PortlandFire | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Sky (-3.5)this page
- PortlandFire vs. Chicago SkyChicago Sky won
- PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 168.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 169.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 170.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 171.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Sky (-1.5)Chicago Sky won
- Spread: Chicago Sky (-2.5)Chicago Sky won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.