Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90944fe689a637632d6e217f5c5e044e7e02db2f221fa9aab745681141140ff7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 10c | 553.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 18c | 292.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 6c | 249.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 6c | 234.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 33c | 225.31$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.91 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 159.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 10c | 139.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 53c | 137.15$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 122.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 11c | 96.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 41c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 68.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 59.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 54.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 51.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 51.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 59c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 45.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 40.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…b662backed Yes | 62c | 29.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 28.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 72c | 26.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 68c | 21.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 68c | 20.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 69c | 20.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 19.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 18.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 75c | 17.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 15.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.