Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc0930763c3c9ba1c9e80c87113f79f7ccbdc6c439841ed047864a8e6573d7d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 475.09$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 42c | 234.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 207.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 44c | 204.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 59c | 201.52$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 64c | 196.78$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 38c | 189.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 10c | 189.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 34c | 188$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 36c | 184$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 176.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 62c | 167.58$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 58c | 156$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 37c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 59c | 119$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 96.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 60c | 95.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 84.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 35c | 77.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 66c | 75.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 59c | 75.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 74.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 41c | 73.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 59c | 69.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 41c | 66.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 36c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 56.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 45c | 51.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 42c | 50.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 38c | 47.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed Yes | 45c | 44.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 41c | 43.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…808bbacked No | 63c | 42.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 63c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 63c | 40.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked No | 59c | 40.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…2861backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 62c | 37.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 43c | 32.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 39c | 31.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…abc4backed Yes | 40c | 31.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 62c | 27.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…419abacked Yes | 43c | 26.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 40c | 25.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aaa…d0e0backed No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…a5abbacked No | 63c | 21.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 18.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 59c | 17.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.