NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pacers (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x914a509c95295ee69fdce281df13d774650a30738642f53ac592048a72bbaeee

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Pacers, Jazz
Resolved: Nov 12, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $66,736
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $67,616

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,736 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Jazz	49c	14,787$7,261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,525.08	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Pacers	51c	10,000$5,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,099.98	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad4…3c1abacked Jazz	49c	9,999$4,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,099.48	77	48.1%37 W · 40 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5753…fb7fbacked Pacers	51c	9,500$4,845 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,845	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd82f…2088backed Jazz	49c	9,477$4,644 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,833.27	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1602…3674backed Pacers	52c	9,000$4,680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,680	24	66.7%16 W · 8 L	+4.8wins	+0.20per pick	47cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Jazz	49c	5,037$2,468 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,568.87	477	51.8%247 W · 230 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Pacers	49c	4,231$2,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,073.28	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Pacers	51c	4,217$2,151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,150.67	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked Pacers	51c	4,000$2,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,040	66	36.4%24 W · 42 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz	49c	3,469$1,698 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,770.4	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Jazz	51c	2,941$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,441.18	83	47%39 W · 44 L	-6.8wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pacers	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$979.99	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x865a…f1ecbacked Pacers	51c	1,500$765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$765	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6043…84afbacked Pacers	49c	1,433$702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$702.17	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jazz	50c	1,100$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$550	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Pacers	52c	1,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	722	41.4%299 W · 423 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Pacers	51c	980.39$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	334	47.9%160 W · 174 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jazz	45c	856$389 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$467.45	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Jazz	49c	750$370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$380	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Pacers	49c	743.51$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.32	724	50.7%367 W · 357 L	+13.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Jazz	49c	688.28$335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$353.14	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1377…56aebacked Jazz	50c	600$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	74	47.3%35 W · 39 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Pacers	51c	592.75$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.3	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Pacers	51c	588.24$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	211	52.6%111 W · 100 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e1…dcf6backed Jazz	52c	580$302 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.4	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.6wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fb1…cc29backed Pacers	48c	580$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.4	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jazz	49c	560$273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$287.23	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Pacers	51c	529.41$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	72	61.1%44 W · 28 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Pacers	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	-5.6wins	-0.15per pick	47cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Jazz	50c	417.14$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207.19	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Pacers	51c	392.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	137	48.9%67 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…5a74backed Jazz	51c	294.76$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.76	75	54.7%41 W · 34 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed Jazz	51c	294.35$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.35	55	36.4%20 W · 35 L	-5.6wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Jazz	50c	211.11$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.56	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74cb…e673backed Pacers	49c	209$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.41	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc246…8b3ebacked Pacers	49c	207$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.43	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5072…c02abacked Jazz	51c	201$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.49	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.33per pick	49cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Jazz	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Pacers	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc286…d565backed Pacers	48c	194$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.12	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x872f…6a25backed Jazz	51c	194$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.06	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+88.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pacers	47c	188.68$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.68	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x117c…db06backed Jazz	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	180	47.2%85 W · 95 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf995…fc18backed Jazz	52c	183$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.84	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+2.6wins	+0.38per pick	48cpaid	+100.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcfdb…3975backed Pacers	48c	173$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.04	8	50%4 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32c3…2f56backed Jazz	52c	166$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.68	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bdc…1669backed Jazz	51c	160$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.4	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	36cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x744b…848ebacked Jazz	49c	153.06$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.06	145	52.4%76 W · 69 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6597…895dbacked Jazz	51c	152$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.48	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+2.3wins	+0.17per pick	48cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f5f…2348backed Pacers	49c	106.12$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-5.4wins	-0.19per pick	57cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x64b7…1dd8backed Jazz	50c	106$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	46cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed Pacers	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	134	49.3%66 W · 68 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9912…4f03backed Pacers	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	73	54.8%40 W · 33 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f21…fa6dbacked Jazz	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Jazz	51c	87.9$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.07	475	42.3%201 W · 274 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed Jazz	50c	80$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.3	84	50%42 W · 42 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Jazz	49c	76$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.45	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa53f…b4c8backed Jazz	49c	70.37$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.89	37	62.2%23 W · 14 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+17%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Pacers	50c	70$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Jazz	49c	61.22$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.22	319	47.6%152 W · 167 L	-18.8wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe80…e0a6backed Pacers	52c	57.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73fc…c153backed Jazz	49c	48.98$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.98	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+2.3wins	+0.23per pick	57cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ff9…ce7abacked Jazz	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Jazz	50c	38.46$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.38	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Jazz	49c	36.73$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.73	358	51.7%185 W · 173 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ebf…dc08backed Pacers	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x787c…7ae2backed Pacers	52c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	89	57.3%51 W · 38 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Jazz	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd77c…ee8ebacked Jazz	50c	25.8$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+2.8wins	+0.31per pick	58cpaid	+56.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Pacers	49c	25.38$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.44	180	53.3%96 W · 84 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Pacers	49c	24.49$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x833c…24f4backed Pacers	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	61	62.3%38 W · 23 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Pacers (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event