Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO1) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91626ba84fd0900bf35e7cfa543d777a26bfa1966f88a326dea4cee131dfcbf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Resilienceof Team Refuser, Team Resilience
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Resilience | 48c | 3,345$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.49 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…c77ebacked Team Refuser | 27c | 2,401$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Team Refuser | 53c | 2,000$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.98 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4d…8525backed Team Refuser | 59c | 1,846$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.09 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Team Resilience | 48c | 1,037$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.57 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Resilience | 51c | 1,024$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.1 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Team Resilience | 46c | 950.17$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.7 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Team Resilience | 60c | 798.74$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.22 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Refuser | 52c | 785.46$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.15 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Team Resilience | 44c | 774.1$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.73 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb278…3ba6backed Team Refuser | 51c | 652.32$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.88 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc156…f76cbacked Team Resilience | 56c | 651.86$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.01 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Team Refuser | 54c | 649.67$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Team Refuser | 56c | 629$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.29 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Refuser | 41c | 614.57$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.63 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc646…e394backed Team Resilience | 44c | 600$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.97 | 376 | 55.1%207 W · 169 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Team Resilience | 40c | 543$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.7 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f01…0d90backed Team Resilience | 44c | 539.59$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.17 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Refuser | 55c | 475.35$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.2 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Team Resilience | 45c | 400.76$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.42 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Team Resilience | 55c | 353.07$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.55 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd037…5ea2backed Team Refuser | 54c | 333.33$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Refuser | 41c | 315.4$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.85 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…b53abacked Team Resilience | 43c | 312.54$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.63 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Team Refuser | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Team Resilience | 44c | 298.31$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.11 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…d143backed Team Refuser | 56c | 279.89$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Team Resilience | 46c | 270.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 223 | 63.2%141 W · 82 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…0540backed Team Resilience | 49c | 232.45$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.45 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Team Resilience | 46c | 217.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Team Refuser | 51c | 206.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.42 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Team Refuser | 57c | 200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Team Refuser | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Team Resilience | 51c | 179.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…c324backed Team Refuser | 56c | 175$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Team Resilience | 57c | 174.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Team Resilience | 45c | 154.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed Team Refuser | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Team Refuser | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0031backed Team Resilience | 42c | 108.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 89 | 18%16 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e12…1a88backed Team Resilience | 45c | 105.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…09b7backed Team Refuser | 58c | 104.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbb…75a1backed Team Resilience | 44c | 103.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b8…61dcbacked Team Refuser | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 180 | 65.6%118 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Team Refuser | 58c | 89.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…747fbacked Team Refuser | 57c | 89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…c533backed Team Refuser | 53c | 83.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Resilience | 44c | 78.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team Resilience | 42c | 70.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Team Resilience | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…a16ebacked Team Refuser | 63c | 63.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 381 | 67.2%256 W · 125 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…6f16backed Team Refuser | 57c | 61.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Resilience | 58c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Team Refuser | 55c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Team Refuser | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Team Resilience | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Resilience | 47c | 49.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…59e9backed Team Resilience | 53c | 47.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Team Resilience | 49c | 45.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Team Refuser | 54c | 45.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…2f08backed Team Resilience | 48c | 43.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e7…3182backed Team Refuser | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2628…39cfbacked Team Refuser | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 63.8%113 W · 64 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Team Resilience | 47c | 33.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…3e36backed Team Refuser | 51c | 30.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Team Refuser | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e98…1047backed Team Refuser | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1be1…5009backed Team Resilience | 50c | 28.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team Refuser | 55c | 27.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Team Resilience | 40c | 25.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Team Resilience | 42c | 25.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Team Refuser | 52c | 23.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked Team Resilience | 62c | 22.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…7f4dbacked Team Refuser | 57c | 20.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…5adfbacked Team Resilience | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ab…3ebdbacked Team Refuser | 66c | 15.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.