TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,554
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,669

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,554 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8744…9165backed Yes31c774$240 inWon+$534.062045%9 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b45…9723backed No69c700$483 inLost-$48326069.2%180 W · 80 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3af8…a69ebacked Yes31c542.55$168 inWon+$374.553925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No63c336.42$212 inLost-$211.64,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes44c150$66 inWon+$84.4165762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5da…7f7fbacked Yes30c130$39 inWon+$90.82646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Yes44c118.74$52 inWon+$66.531,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd934…a590backed Yes30c117.39$36 inWon+$81.651040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe092…d209backed Yes31c80.65$25 inWon+$55.651833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No70c56.88$40 inLost-$39.8292058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb8c…db83backed Yes31c51.61$16 inWon+$35.61825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No57c42.33$24 inLost-$24.1365630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No71c41.84$30 inLost-$29.7183158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked No57c40$23 inLost-$22.888057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf05f…91d5backed Yes51c29.36$15 inWon+$14.3612857.8%74 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No49c26.53$13 inLost-$131,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No67c19.99$13 inLost-$13.3960267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.