TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$140,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$143,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,868 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Under49c60,215$29,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,692.4454539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Under48c20,000$9,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,3001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Over52c13,502$7,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,014.7517554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Over52c12,418$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,40038750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Over50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…da92backed Over52c9,552$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under48c8,556$4,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,432.843,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over52c6,835$3,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,554.21,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over52c6,596$3,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,429.9258449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over53c5,806$3,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,057.421,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Over51c5,755$2,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,93541649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Over51c5,196$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6504535.6%16 W · 29 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Over50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under47c4,827$2,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,544.386,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Under50c4,026$2,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,013.243148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x305a…1775backed Over54c3,834$2,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,063.2475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+53.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Over51c3,443$1,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.4380737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under46c3,079$1,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,653.032,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Over51c2,896$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.919445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Over51c2,250$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.78148.1%39 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Over5c2,200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020837.5%78 W · 130 L+38.2wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+115.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Over51c2,196$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12065750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Over51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00049246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Over52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00026637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd00b…223ebacked Over50c1,697$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Over51c1,430$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.130446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Under50c1,400$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7008751.7%45 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Over50c1,300$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Under48c1,290$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.988961.8%55 W · 34 L+0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Over51c1,137$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58034854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50024050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under47c891.78$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.583,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under46c839.56$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.365,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under49c699.96$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.983,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under51c621.2$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.928,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Under50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30046346.4%215 W · 248 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb227…8809backed Over53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011157.7%64 W · 47 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Over52c543$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.369742.3%41 W · 56 L-10.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Under51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24533150.8%168 W · 163 L+1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Over26c493.27$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2219435.1%68 W · 126 L-13.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over51c456.56$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.792,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over49c405.74$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.54,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2271…8170backed Over50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018147%85 W · 96 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Over49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19616148.4%78 W · 83 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over51c396$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.961,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86d9…b214backed Under50c388.43$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.3221854.6%119 W · 99 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over38c370.41$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.13,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Under50c304.82$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.641742%175 W · 242 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Under49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15328348.8%138 W · 145 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over51c291.36$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.34,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Over51c276.76$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.8283158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under48c241.19$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.132,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Over50c222$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11147748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed Under50c201.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2314155.3%78 W · 63 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb781…9ba9backed Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10012047.5%57 W · 63 L-6.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Under48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10491148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Under49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10245146.1%208 W · 243 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10078652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3582…8fc6backed Under51c197.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.397332.9%24 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Under51c197.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.2569049.4%341 W · 349 L-30.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed Under51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.087247.2%34 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under47c190$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.75,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x468d…cf23backed Under50c175.28$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.994546.7%21 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cac…1695backed Under67c148.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d6…e952backed Over53c144$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.222740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2091…b4f8backed Over48c140$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.77639.5%30 W · 46 L-9.7wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-27.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under70c136.7$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.453,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Under48c134.81$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.122746.3%105 W · 122 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e36…6ce1backed Over51c121.57$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623060%18 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under50c119.92$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.962,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under68c118.7$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9824955.8%139 W · 110 L+0.7wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Under63c117.68$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7939047.7%186 W · 204 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86a8…d0e7backed Under51c117.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6510955%60 W · 49 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Under48c116.4$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.5362541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under46c108.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.722,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over48c103.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.921,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e32…d479backed Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013115.3%20 W · 111 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-47.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4942551.3%218 W · 207 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4941052%213 W · 197 L-1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc3…0670backed Under48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528447.6%40 W · 44 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf11b…3fe3backed Under50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506056.7%34 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Over51c99.97$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9939435.3%139 W · 255 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35b8…898abacked Under51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.048754%47 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcc…031ebacked Under52c94.34$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2823349.4%115 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under55c90.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.954549.5%270 W · 275 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Over52c83$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1628243.3%122 W · 160 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Over45c78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3616139.8%64 W · 97 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9345…3869backed Over52c76.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405448.1%26 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Over51c74.51$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3850351.5%259 W · 244 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under54c73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5846447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over49c67.46$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.062,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52fe…effdbacked Under51c67.29$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.978840.9%36 W · 52 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Over51c66.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2976250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xead8…ce1abacked Over45c65.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.826141%25 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbd9…aea9backed Over51c60.78$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110156.4%57 W · 44 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Under50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3025655.5%142 W · 114 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e20…ac93backed Over51c58.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Under50c52.28$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1435843.6%156 W · 202 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.