TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,012
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,012 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Under46c14,496$6,697 inWon+$7,798.7854539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over54c5,584$2,991 inLost-$2,990.734,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over54c4,362$2,356 inLost-$2,355.746,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under48c1,760$845 inWon+$915.332,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under57c1,079$610 inWon+$468.988,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Over52c1,000$520 inLost-$52080737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Over54c923.4$499 inLost-$498.6451146.6%238 W · 273 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Under51c850$434 inWon+$416.562744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over49c850$417 inLost-$416.51,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Over54c800$432 inLost-$4329742.3%41 W · 56 L-10.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Over50c711.25$356 inLost-$355.6322055%121 W · 99 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x004e…c650backed Over54c648.15$350 inLost-$35018650%93 W · 93 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over54c494.63$267 inLost-$267.11,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Over53c478.5$252 inLost-$252.4716139.8%64 W · 97 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Over32c348.96$110 inLost-$109.9819435.1%68 W · 126 L-13.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under48c347.88$166 inWon+$181.864,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over43c222.56$96 inLost-$95.653,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over40c208.88$83 inLost-$83.453,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over52c165.82$87 inLost-$86.883,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under48c126.31$61 inWon+$65.682,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd10…f782backed Over55c123.98$68 inLost-$67.8111647.4%55 W · 61 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe6c…4f6fbacked Over54c101.85$55 inLost-$553145.2%14 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over54c99$53 inLost-$53.461,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over48c90.72$44 inLost-$43.551,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Over54c81.02$44 inLost-$43.7538750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under46c78.45$36 inWon+$42.361,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under52c65$34 inWon+$31.246447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under78c64.09$50 inWon+$14.165872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9734…8f5ebacked Under78c53.85$42 inWon+$11.855158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over51c45.36$23 inLost-$23.272,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Under67c40.16$27 inWon+$13.3839047.7%186 W · 204 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf9…7560backed Over54c37.04$20 inLost-$208143.2%35 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x52fe…effdbacked Under52c32.92$17 inWon+$15.88840.9%36 W · 52 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under46c31$14 inWon+$16.7465630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2633…aaefbacked Under65c23.06$15 inWon+$8.061190.9%10 W · 1 L+4.0wins+0.36per pick55cpaid+65.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf158…aa4bbacked Under79c21.85$17 inWon+$4.63250%16 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.