TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,588
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,825

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,588 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e36…8ec0backed Nuggets74c2,306$1,701 inLost-$1,70130%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd359…6007backed Timberwolves46c2,174$1,000 inWon+$1,173.912343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Nuggets59c1,496$880 inLost-$880.0348956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets57c956.38$543 inLost-$543.025,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Nuggets63c952.38$600 inLost-$6003053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Timberwolves24c676.83$160 inWon+$516.921,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c1e…6f67backed Timberwolves39c510.81$200 inWon+$310.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Timberwolves19c412.47$78 inWon+$334.11,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Timberwolves19c210.53$40 inWon+$170.5314636.3%53 W · 93 L+16.4wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+58.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Nuggets54c100$54 inLost-$543,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2886…9bb2backed Timberwolves39c100$39 inWon+$6110945%49 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb975…e19abacked Timberwolves45c88.89$40 inWon+$48.891764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+46.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Timberwolves22c72$16 inWon+$56.1650651.2%259 W · 247 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71e0…1e8abacked Nuggets60c65.15$39 inLost-$39.091346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b1…63ecbacked Nuggets63c39.75$25 inLost-$25.049334.4%32 W · 61 L-11.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Timberwolves40c25$10 inWon+$1597049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Nuggets55c22.22$12 inLost-$12.2263555.6%353 W · 282 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x153d…cae2backed Nuggets60c17.88$11 inLost-$10.739835.7%35 W · 63 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.