NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1360f8b6d24e02739540eb4dcb67c538df2264778ecce63d74ba3bf660a04f8

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,913
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,142

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,913 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Under	45c	11,405$5,098 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,306.82	545	39.6%216 W · 329 L	-28.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over	55c	6,155$3,385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,385.29	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	55c	2,249$1,242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,242.08	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed Over	58c	1,981$1,144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,144.46	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Over	56c	1,503$841 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$841.35	513	54.2%278 W · 235 L	+9.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9663…0399backed Under	52c	1,501$781 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$720.48	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6d1…109bbacked Over	48c	1,201$581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	42c	987.33$415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$572.65	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	67c	855.81$573 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282.67	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over	34c	703.63$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.2	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f63…57b9backed Over	49c	700$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.1wins	-0.24per pick	47cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7f14…63cebacked Under	50c	696$348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$348	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31df…25dfbacked Over	50c	692$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ebd…5b2bbacked Under	50c	690$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$345	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6568…48a7backed Under	50c	598$299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$299	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	55c	583.95$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.56	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	53c	582.55$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.18	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5ec9…9660backed Over	50c	560$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Over	34c	554.75$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.15	194	35.1%68 W · 126 L	-13.2wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x49af…e9cebacked Over	50c	552$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x605d…cec3backed Over	56c	535.71$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	154	50.6%78 W · 76 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d86…4655backed Over	50c	524$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf2…c320backed Over	50c	520$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7042…6b14backed Over	50c	516$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dee…0842backed Under	50c	508$254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Over	55c	497$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.35	97	42.3%41 W · 56 L	-10.0wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-19%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f9f…dcdabacked Under	50c	492$246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.25per pick	50cpaid	+49%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb6…8977backed Under	52c	404$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.92	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	45c	383.34$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.97	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under	63c	348.41$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.46	1,096	40.9%448 W · 648 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b9…560cbacked Under	50c	330$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over	55c	295.06$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.28	1,562	47.4%741 W · 821 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	49c	282.65$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.53	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Under	68c	277$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.87	619	39.6%245 W · 374 L	-17.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Under	67c	277$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.82	385	40.3%155 W · 230 L	-10.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	37c	255.9$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.42	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc935…2579backed Under	60c	248.2$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.35	68	72.1%49 W · 19 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	64cpaid	+13%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Under	62c	246.9$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.95	880	57.5%506 W · 374 L	+34.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Under	46c	213.26$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.16	358	43.6%156 W · 202 L	-8.0wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd598…c67cbacked Under	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	90	37.8%34 W · 56 L	-7.0wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	539	51.6%278 W · 261 L	+20.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Under	68c	191.81$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.81	260	48.1%125 W · 135 L	-15.1wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0e3…c09fbacked Over	55c	189.58$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.71	69	53.6%37 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	64c	189.04$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.02	1,170	50.3%588 W · 582 L	+46.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Over	33c	187.54$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.89	161	39.8%64 W · 97 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	43c	168.02$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.63	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over	39c	165$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.16	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Under	67c	156$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.84	469	40.3%189 W · 280 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed Over	36c	148.89$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.3	144	56.3%81 W · 63 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	71c	140.59$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.28	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	45c	133.33$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.33	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4792…3f1fbacked Over	37c	114.5$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.89	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over	54c	112.7$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.89	786	48.7%383 W · 403 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	49c	108.29$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.23	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Under	66c	105$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.71	308	40.9%126 W · 182 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under	49c	104$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.04	464	47.8%222 W · 242 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Under	61c	102.5$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.57	655	42.9%281 W · 374 L	+17.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over	56c	99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.44	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under	64c	96.64$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.97	402	43.8%176 W · 226 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e32…d479backed Over	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	131	15.3%20 W · 111 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Under	63c	83.21$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.87	390	47.7%186 W · 204 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52fe…effdbacked Under	51c	67.14$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.9	88	40.9%36 W · 52 L	-7.0wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bd6…bf96backed Over	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	230	51.3%118 W · 112 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08e5…42acbacked Over	51c	59.4$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.29	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.5wins	+0.23per pick	50cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Under	46c	59.39$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.07	145	33.1%48 W · 97 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over	27c	58$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	138	50%69 W · 69 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Over	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	635	55.6%353 W · 282 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41c8…424fbacked Over	56c	45.98$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.75	214	59.3%127 W · 87 L	+12.3wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Over	29c	44.01$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	111	28.8%32 W · 79 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Under	49c	42.86$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.86	548	54.2%297 W · 251 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over	37c	40.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.91	903	57%515 W · 388 L	+40.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under	66c	40$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.6	1,384	39.4%545 W · 839 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf08…dea4backed Under	68c	40$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc119…7d4dbacked Over	33c	39.39$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	176	50%88 W · 88 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under	48c	38$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.76	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7307…7d23backed Over	56c	34.11$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	116	61.2%71 W · 45 L	+8.0wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d95…373fbacked Over	51c	29.8$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44e4…f624backed Under	54c	29$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.34	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Under	45c	27.93$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.28	456	53.5%244 W · 212 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7715…ada4backed Over	54c	25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	63	44.4%28 W · 35 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Over	55c	24.2$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.31	525	52%273 W · 252 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4861…4fcabacked Under	62c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.6	148	58.1%86 W · 62 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5this page
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5No won
Bruce Brown: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
Christian Braun: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
Julius Randle: Points O/U 18.5No won
Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5No won
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5No won
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Timberwolves won
Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
Timberwolves vs. NuggetsTimberwolves won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event