MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x922b4d41f0d9906ba19bbdf3b1c48b1ea66378d2fecb16f40b8fb3a3272e4429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b20…3ab0backed Over | 36c | 30,000$10,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,199.99 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 64c | 27,240$17,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,433.44 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 3,084$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 36c | 2,477$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.99 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 64c | 2,177$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.48 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 1,418$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.72 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f82…9ae1backed Under | 63c | 1,349$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 64c | 1,138$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.32 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 60c | 1,131$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.64 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 64c | 957$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.59 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…ad47backed Over | 35c | 558.46$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…bb4ebacked Under | 66c | 356.06$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 34c | 338.89$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.67 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 28c | 317$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.53 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 297.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.31 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 36c | 228$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.92 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 146$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 35c | 142.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Under | 64c | 79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 68c | 65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 39c | 58.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 39c | 50.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…0f99backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 47c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 40c | 33.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 46c | 28.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 47c | 27.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 64c | 26.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 66c | 23.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ec…581bbacked Under | 64c | 19.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f2…68f9backed Under | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.