MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x388f32ba37ce28405a925e32ae9dfce3d7b55afc67fa83d08a4e9727d6979377
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Under | 1c | 4,804$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 45c | 4,616$2,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077.2 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 41c | 3,250$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.66 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Over | 55c | 2,930$1,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,318.51 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 58c | 2,863$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.02 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 2,744$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.07 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 792.46$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.61 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 689.01$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 55c | 629$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.44 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 44c | 614$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.16 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 56c | 597.37$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.84 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 57c | 528.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.31 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 55c | 399$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.55 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 44c | 361.46$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.04 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721e…3439backed Over | 56c | 350.88$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.39 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 330.91$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.76 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Under | 44c | 307$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 41c | 268.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Under | 57c | 246.92$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Under | 45c | 218$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 6c | 215.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…ea41backed Under | 45c | 212.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…50a8backed Under | 45c | 212.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…f527backed Under | 45c | 212.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 77c | 185.18$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.37 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 42c | 155$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 127.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 59c | 125.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Under | 45c | 108.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Under | 45c | 108.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Under | 45c | 108.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 57c | 105.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…7593backed Under | 45c | 89.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 56c | 86.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…049abacked Under | 45c | 85.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Under | 45c | 82.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 45c | 79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Under | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 57c | 70.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 55c | 60.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 53c | 56.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 68c | 56.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 56.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 57c | 52.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 51.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 42c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 77c | 46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcd…0a9cbacked Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…8002backed Under | 45c | 43.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…1bd8backed Under | 45c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…9854backed Under | 45c | 42.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Under | 45c | 42.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…cfdebacked Under | 45c | 42.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…779fbacked Under | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 41c | 35.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 74c | 33.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 51c | 33.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 42c | 30.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 42c | 26.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 66c | 15.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.