MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5741a80b52600b303b463abaa1a697d21b7871897e0a41799d9b211dff546c10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b20…3ab0backed Over | 42c | 35,530$14,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,607.31 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 58c | 25,329$14,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,622.06 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 57c | 12,077$6,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,889.29 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 58c | 7,943$4,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,602.16 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 6,384$2,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,638.73 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 2,537$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.85 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 43c | 2,017$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.61 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 43c | 1,757$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.03 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 1,587$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.48 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…4c4ebacked Under | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 3.9%2 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 44c | 1,284$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.04 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 55c | 1,019$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.71 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 56c | 1,002$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.12 | 552 | 53.1%293 W · 259 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 45c | 939$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.35 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 13c | 890.64$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.4 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…c757backed Under | 2c | 703.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 43c | 666.4$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.92 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 57c | 400.8$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.46 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 57c | 400.8$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.46 | 384 | 53.6%206 W · 178 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 57c | 398.4$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.09 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 42c | 390$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.2 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17af…2a45backed Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…ad47backed Over | 43c | 245.16$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 45c | 244.46$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.45 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 202.61$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.54 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 65c | 191.88$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 70c | 186.89$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.71 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 55c | 179.21$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 33c | 177.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.37 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…63d8backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 50c | 164$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.37 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 151.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 150.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 45c | 133.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 114.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 44c | 113.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked Over | 48c | 99.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 57c | 99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 57c | 96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 95.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 44c | 73.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x589f…2fe4backed Under | 56c | 66.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 73c | 64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…a95fbacked Over | 39c | 57.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…0ae2backed Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 45c | 48.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 47c | 48.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 32c | 40.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 47c | 38.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 313 | 52.4%164 W · 149 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 57c | 35.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Over | 45c | 33.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 55c | 33.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 28.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 47c | 26.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 46c | 23.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 46c | 23.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 43c | 23.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 53c | 22.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a4…1963backed Under | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 58c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Under | 57c | 20.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 55c | 20.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 58c | 17.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.