Tennis · resolved market
New Delhi: Alastair Gray vs Hyeon Chung
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x924d1c73b1c17ff47cb234b6160db167808c2bc97ca26f13d9b0403ab3ec3141
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grayof Gray, Chung
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc28f…fe35backed Gray | 44c | 24,970$10,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,983.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeed…7d49backed Gray | 42c | 23,338$9,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,533.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Chung | 46c | 11,439$5,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,205.87 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Gray | 55c | 9,996$5,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,467.53 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Gray | 59c | 3,961$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.77 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Chung | 43c | 3,568$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.58 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Gray | 59c | 2,122$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.2 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked Gray | 55c | 1,706$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.84 | 268 | 47%126 W · 142 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chung | 44c | 1,603$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.12 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Chung | 33c | 1,337$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.78 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f95…6972backed Chung | 42c | 1,090$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.23 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8da1…339ebacked Chung | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc537…f385backed Chung | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Chung | 60c | 830.44$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -16.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Gray | 43c | 803.71$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.27 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Chung | 60c | 672.2$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 416 | 45.4%189 W · 227 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Chung | 54c | 555.1$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 217 | 58.1%126 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…3f91backed Chung | 18c | 545.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Gray | 47c | 521.62$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.14 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Gray | 42c | 499.93$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.4 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Chung | 57c | 415.34$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.78 | 1,123 | 50.3%565 W · 558 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Gray | 44c | 322.73$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.29 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Chung | 48c | 311.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2,150 | 54.1%1,164 W · 986 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Gray | 43c | 299.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…d12fbacked Gray | 46c | 263.83$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.83 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Gray | 57c | 253.05$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.59 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x725d…e49abacked Chung | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…1520backed Chung | 58c | 227.34$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.01 | 307 | 44.6%137 W · 170 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Gray | 44c | 222.31$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Gray | 50c | 212.08$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.02 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cf…3e8cbacked Chung | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…c8f2backed Gray | 52c | 203.72$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Gray | 49c | 202.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.14 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…d11fbacked Chung | 51c | 201$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Chung | 51c | 194$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…9827backed Gray | 76c | 190.76$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Chung | 50c | 189.23$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Gray | 43c | 177.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.55 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Gray | 50c | 173$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 1,029 | 33.5%345 W · 684 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Chung | 59c | 168.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5865…696abacked Gray | 68c | 162.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Chung | 52c | 156.12$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…4d66backed Gray | 77c | 151.2$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Gray | 49c | 143.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.94 | 378 | 54%204 W · 174 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…9c6ebacked Chung | 58c | 141.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8b…a0cabacked Gray | 41c | 140$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 126 | 59.5%75 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939c…ad45backed Chung | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Chung | 26c | 132.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 248 | 26.2%65 W · 183 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Gray | 44c | 131.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Chung | 50c | 124.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa3…b798backed Gray | 79c | 120.25$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Chung | 55c | 116$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 239 | 45.6%109 W · 130 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…e660backed Gray | 44c | 112.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…4385backed Chung | 51c | 106.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…e4ccbacked Chung | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 515 | 39.8%205 W · 310 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Chung | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…e7d6backed Gray | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -6.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc13…83b8backed Chung | 56c | 88.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Gray | 76c | 81.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Chung | 38c | 79.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Chung | 33c | 68.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Gray | 53c | 63.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…d27abacked Chung | 57c | 59.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…8e5fbacked Gray | 44c | 57.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef96…54dfbacked Chung | 55c | 54.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Gray | 51c | 49.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb846…b8d0backed Chung | 50c | 47.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5904…940fbacked Chung | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 114 | 65.8%75 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Gray | 73c | 40.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c4…fe40backed Chung | 57c | 39.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Chung | 53c | 38.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…a60fbacked Chung | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Chung | 59c | 37.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd956…3f79backed Gray | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Gray | 45c | 32.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Gray | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…6960backed Gray | 50c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Gray | 45c | 27.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Gray | 76c | 26.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Chung | 57c | 26.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 146 | 39%57 W · 89 L | -14.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Chung | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 245 | 63.3%155 W · 90 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Chung | 60c | 22.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 836 | 61%510 W · 326 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New Delhi: Alastair Gray vs Hyeon Chungthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Gray vs ChungGray won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.