TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Valencia vs. Olympiacos B.C.

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Valenciaof Valencia, Olympiacos B.C.
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$572,896

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $572,896 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Valencia49c379,514$186,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193,435.41060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+25.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Olympiacos B.C.51c212,612$109,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109,047.5112042.5%51 W · 69 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Olympiacos B.C.51c144,511$73,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,700.46812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick45cpaid-75.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Valencia49c48,246$23,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,712.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Olympiacos B.C.51c14,937$7,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,597.041330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99e0…5052backed Olympiacos B.C.50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00050%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Olympiacos B.C.52c9,114$4,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,720.244953.1%26 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Olympiacos B.C.51c8,461$4,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,315.08560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Olympiacos B.C.50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00050%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f09…9312backed Valencia55c7,958$4,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,573.53345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Olympiacos B.C.51c6,310$3,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,218.1922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick52cpaid-48%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc7fa…f6dfbacked Valencia44c4,203$1,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,336.85862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+35.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Olympiacos B.C.62c3,658$2,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,286.342927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-61%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7e4…5b5cbacked Valencia50c2,833$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.45475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+45.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Olympiacos B.C.55c2,612$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4372437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Olympiacos B.C.49c2,552$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.281050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Valencia47c2,329$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.835642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Olympiacos B.C.51c2,217$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.318644.2%38 W · 48 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d77…000fbacked Olympiacos B.C.52c1,917$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Olympiacos B.C.62c1,805$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.569551.6%49 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Olympiacos B.C.51c1,741$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.5821444.4%95 W · 119 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Valencia48c1,524$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.2113147.3%62 W · 69 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Olympiacos B.C.51c1,454$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.7837052.7%195 W · 175 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Olympiacos B.C.51c1,375$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.9127557.5%158 W · 117 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Olympiacos B.C.51c1,276$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.559946.5%46 W · 53 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42ef…1576backed Olympiacos B.C.53c1,186$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.58933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-48.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Valencia49c1,100$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.4316235.2%57 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Olympiacos B.C.51c1,048$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.338037.5%30 W · 50 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Olympiacos B.C.51c1,011$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.617462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b71…4e79backed Valencia41c1,004$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.91154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Olympiacos B.C.51c998.15$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.381546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Olympiacos B.C.50c981.94$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.996844.1%30 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Olympiacos B.C.51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa5…4f56backed Olympiacos B.C.51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-67.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Olympiacos B.C.52c932.46$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.882030%6 W · 14 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked Olympiacos B.C.54c919.43$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Olympiacos B.C.59c846.32$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Olympiacos B.C.52c774.21$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.931446.2%145 W · 169 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Olympiacos B.C.58c724.99$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.52060%12 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Olympiacos B.C.52c673$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.31631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-50.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Olympiacos B.C.46c560.54$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.7654251.5%279 W · 263 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8df8…59ddbacked Valencia48c547.15$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.891650%8 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Olympiacos B.C.70c536.82$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.9536939.8%147 W · 222 L+1.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Valencia48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2604148.8%20 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88ff…fa1bbacked Valencia35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+42.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Olympiacos B.C.54c496$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.3318144.2%80 W · 101 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Valencia52c458.58$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.5126544.5%118 W · 147 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Olympiacos B.C.57c453.83$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.096446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76a0…fb5bbacked Olympiacos B.C.51c440.65$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc2…b3b6backed Valencia23c410$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3161855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+36.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda22…6d2abacked Olympiacos B.C.49c406.2$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005050%25 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Olympiacos B.C.72c401.15$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.2610050%50 W · 50 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde80…d8b9backed Olympiacos B.C.55c331.57$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.073040%12 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Olympiacos B.C.51c304.17$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.8510634.9%37 W · 69 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7122…6bcabacked Olympiacos B.C.51c290.45$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.13933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ed9…8bdcbacked Olympiacos B.C.53c283.02$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-63.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x788a…bff2backed Olympiacos B.C.71c281.42$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Valencia51c269.49$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.724634.8%16 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9775…ed41backed Olympiacos B.C.49c267.06$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.61030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ff…c9ddbacked Olympiacos B.C.51c250$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.51631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45bd…ddc3backed Valencia33c231.75$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.75475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+88.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked Olympiacos B.C.45c219.41$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.551957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+30.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb263…6275backed Valencia49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.08850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4747…2987backed Valencia49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.08650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Valencia50c201.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.043100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked Olympiacos B.C.47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Olympiacos B.C.50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007741.6%32 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Valencia49c199.09$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.548845.5%40 W · 48 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ece…8786backed Valencia51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.083250%16 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Olympiacos B.C.51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008760.9%53 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Valencia49c194.78$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.342263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+49.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Olympiacos B.C.53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010663.2%67 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Valencia49c187.69$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1928943.6%126 W · 163 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3453…7ae4backed Valencia52c184.71$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.31172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71a…f135backed Olympiacos B.C.62c172.71$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x403d…2709backed Olympiacos B.C.45c170.41$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763735.1%13 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe44c…f15cbacked Olympiacos B.C.50c162.94$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.992055%11 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Olympiacos B.C.52c153.85$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Valencia47c144.92$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.816929%20 W · 49 L-9.3wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-32.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8d27…676ebacked Olympiacos B.C.58c144.16$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d8…e72dbacked Olympiacos B.C.43c132.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.234438.6%17 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Olympiacos B.C.58c130$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.411455.3%63 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0ec…f7dabacked Olympiacos B.C.46c127.02$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.85862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x210a…1080backed Olympiacos B.C.28c126.45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Olympiacos B.C.51c122$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.228453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Olympiacos B.C.51c120$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.213751.1%70 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Valencia42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0510736.4%39 W · 68 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Valencia49c118.73$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.555541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28af…67a5backed Olympiacos B.C.45c117.6$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Olympiacos B.C.56c115.31$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1114447.9%69 W · 75 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd42…c4aebacked Valencia35c114.37$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.371942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Olympiacos B.C.51c111.96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.11850%9 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f38…39f2backed Olympiacos B.C.51c103.92$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8088…24dabacked Valencia49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.042646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Valencia49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.04785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick49cpaid+80.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Olympiacos B.C.50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507031.4%22 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c06…bbeebacked Olympiacos B.C.51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.51643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1248…8db1backed Valencia48c99.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.591764.7%11 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick40cpaid+66.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x71a5…b594backed Olympiacos B.C.51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda60…595cbacked Olympiacos B.C.51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.