UFC · resolved market
Choi vs. Kevin Vallejos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x928106800d3ed2acc52df247cd28feb5c212136f4a144691d1bdf7ae62ddc8a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vallejosof Choi, Vallejos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Choi | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Choi | 18c | 5,152$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.38 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Choi | 20c | 4,739$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.68 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Vallejos | 80c | 3,576$2,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.17 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Choi | 18c | 2,817$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.43 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…cb01backed Choi | 18c | 2,256$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Choi | 18c | 1,336$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.09 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Choi | 18c | 938.43$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.07 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Choi | 16c | 773.81$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.81 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Choi | 17c | 700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Choi | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…5295backed Choi | 16c | 416.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Choi | 21c | 321$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Choi | 18c | 309$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…0939backed Choi | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Vallejos | 80c | 156$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Choi | 18c | 133$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x211a…9613backed Choi | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Choi | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Vallejos | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Choi vs. Kevin Vallejosthis page
- Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt HolobaughHernandez won
- Chidi Njokuani vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosNjokuani won
- Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Cody GibsonBlackshear won
- Marvin Vettori vs. Roman DolidzeDolidze won
- Su Young You vs. AJ CunninghamYou won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.