UFC · resolved market
Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa65b292b5fa41186d8ee68ccaec4cc79222c4d838c6b965fa79e42a698547fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hernandezof Hernandez, Holobaugh
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Holobaugh | 2c | 19,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Holobaugh | 37c | 4,298$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.53 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Hernandez | 63c | 4,282$2,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.99 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Hernandez | 62c | 3,000$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…254fbacked Holobaugh | 37c | 2,951$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…964dbacked Hernandez | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Holobaugh | 33c | 1,459$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.58 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…136abacked Hernandez | 65c | 1,308$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.31 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…cb01backed Holobaugh | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Holobaugh | 49c | 1,000$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Holobaugh | 35c | 895$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.25 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Hernandez | 66c | 840.91$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.91 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Holobaugh | 36c | 604$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.44 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Hernandez | 64c | 389.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.67 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Holobaugh | 49c | 333.92$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.9 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Holobaugh | 35c | 278.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Holobaugh | 37c | 269.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…c62abacked Hernandez | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Holobaugh | 57c | 233.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.69 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Holobaugh | 36c | 222$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520a…ab8abacked Hernandez | 65c | 220$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.58 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Hernandez | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Hernandez | 64c | 190.38$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Holobaugh | 36c | 159.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…693dbacked Hernandez | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Holobaugh | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Holobaugh | 35c | 140.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Hernandez | 63c | 135.15$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Holobaugh | 49c | 122$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Hernandez | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b83…e97abacked Holobaugh | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Holobaugh | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Holobaugh | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Hernandez | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Holobaugh | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Holobaugh | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Hernandez | 63c | 58.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Hernandez | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Holobaugh | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Holobaugh | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Hernandez | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Hernandez | 63c | 42.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Hernandez | 60c | 33.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…e6cdbacked Hernandez | 66c | 33.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Hernandez | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0a…4fe1backed Hernandez | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Hernandez | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Holobaugh | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…5f08backed Hernandez | 64c | 19.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaughthis page
- Chidi Njokuani vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosNjokuani won
- Choi vs. Kevin VallejosVallejos won
- Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Cody GibsonBlackshear won
- Marvin Vettori vs. Roman DolidzeDolidze won
- Su Young You vs. AJ CunninghamYou won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.