UFC · resolved market
Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Cody Gibson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39bba625a454b9bcf5b4d109ec3b8bb7557b9ab951cbac57d9dd7500a166462b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blackshearof Blackshear, Gibson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Gibson | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Gibson | 23c | 7,591$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,732.85 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Gibson | 23c | 6,528$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.33 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed Blackshear | 80c | 5,989$4,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…bdf5backed Blackshear | 77c | 5,617$4,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.84 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Gibson | 20c | 1,844$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.7 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Gibson | 20c | 1,500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Gibson | 19c | 1,185$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.15 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Gibson | 19c | 999.97$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Gibson | 22c | 970.06$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.87 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…cb01backed Gibson | 20c | 670.68$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Gibson | 20c | 605$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Blackshear | 74c | 560$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520a…ab8abacked Gibson | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Gibson | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Gibson | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Gibson | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Gibson | 20c | 357.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Blackshear | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Blackshear | 78c | 264.01$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Gibson | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…0939backed Gibson | 21c | 239.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Gibson | 31c | 225.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Blackshear | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Blackshear | 78c | 153.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…9a24backed Blackshear | 80c | 115$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Gibson | 27c | 110.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…e9eebacked Gibson | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Gibson | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3465…4b9dbacked Blackshear | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Blackshear | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Blackshear | 80c | 85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Blackshear | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…190ebacked Gibson | 21c | 75.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Blackshear | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7209…60bfbacked Blackshear | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Gibson | 22c | 71.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…62e2backed Gibson | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa87…d52dbacked Blackshear | 80c | 71.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Gibson | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9083…d27bbacked Gibson | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 151 | 39.7%60 W · 91 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Blackshear | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Blackshear | 78c | 50.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Gibson | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe609…47bfbacked Gibson | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…5ddcbacked Gibson | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9d…9a29backed Blackshear | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Blackshear | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Blackshear | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Cody Gibsonthis page
- Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt HolobaughHernandez won
- Chidi Njokuani vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosNjokuani won
- Choi vs. Kevin VallejosVallejos won
- Marvin Vettori vs. Roman DolidzeDolidze won
- Su Young You vs. AJ CunninghamYou won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.