MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x935266a51a3d4c07e79560753fd3d989f2cffa648f64c7cf15671614038223ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 8,843$5,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,307.04 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 3,592$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.29 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 2,811$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 2,000$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.48 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.66 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 1,285$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.35 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Atlanta Braves | 31c | 947$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.57 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…3fbcbacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 607.79$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46c…6bc6backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 537.37$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 515.92$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.05 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins | 78c | 511$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.14 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 500.01$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 22c | 481$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.44 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 27c | 463.25$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 370.68$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.57 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 365.68$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.62 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 325.26$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.35 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves | 31c | 297$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 27c | 278.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 253.49$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Atlanta Braves | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 187.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Atlanta Braves | 31c | 157.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 156$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…ff72backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 94.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b9…6f0abacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 73.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 62.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…5de2backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 60.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 35c | 50.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 48.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…3fc4backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 47.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…2c45backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 43.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked Atlanta Braves | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d3…1144backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 39.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…35cdbacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 36.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…c5aebacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 23.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.