CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93582855ba1d7dbd91ca6e0183c77ff8c18f22d91f8f23188c62432173f6e852
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Aurora Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc6e…fa6fbacked MOUZ | 50c | 4,344$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160.17 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora Gaming | 47c | 3,865$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.31 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 2,488$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.51 | 659 | 46.9%309 W · 350 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…afa6backed MOUZ | 35c | 1,700$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.98 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Aurora Gaming | 32c | 1,329$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.45 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36e…f91cbacked MOUZ | 36c | 1,200$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768 | 303 | 38.9%118 W · 185 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked MOUZ | 68c | 1,140$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.91 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…4a1cbacked Aurora Gaming | 58c | 865$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.7 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…65bdbacked MOUZ | 62c | 472.84$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.68 | 391 | 57.5%225 W · 166 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 393.56$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.82 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 306.19$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.67 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…8237backed MOUZ | 35c | 288.3$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.4 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe4…5df1backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 283.27$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed MOUZ | 31c | 199.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.7 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed MOUZ | 30c | 183.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.45 | 720 | 46.1%332 W · 388 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c19…6303backed MOUZ | 68c | 144.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…4341backed MOUZ | 36c | 133.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…c1dbbacked Aurora Gaming | 42c | 123.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 486 | 52.3%254 W · 232 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dd…4f27backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 509 | 47%239 W · 270 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 99.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 1,167 | 48.2%562 W · 605 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Aurora Gaming | 33c | 91.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +27.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc47a…68e6backed Aurora Gaming | 48c | 69.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked Aurora Gaming | 69c | 56.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a1d3backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 56.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 265 | 64.2%170 W · 95 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 42.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…fb3dbacked MOUZ | 52c | 37.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 354 | 66.1%234 W · 120 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Aurora Gaming | 41c | 32.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d5…7ca1backed MOUZ | 64c | 29.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Aurora Gaming | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 1,146 | 49.4%566 W · 580 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Aurora Gaming | 41c | 28.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1,659 | 32.7%542 W · 1,117 L | -49.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…8869backed Aurora Gaming | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 154 | 60.4%93 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…2a95backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 15.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group BMOUZ won
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.