Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93727b5547390b0d9224691ae1a146b54dc442edbf6febbfdc140bba30e0d507
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 71c | 210.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 196.64$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 28c | 183.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 182.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.73 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 25c | 176$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 155.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 29c | 148.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 53c | 134.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 127.42$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d4…22acbacked Yes | 30c | 119.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 119.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 116.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 55c | 113.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 111.89$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 106.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 58c | 84.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 83.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 82.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 29c | 80.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 76.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 69c | 76.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 71c | 70.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 25c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…aa1bbacked Yes | 29c | 68.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 67.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 57.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 28c | 49.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29bc…e100backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 30c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 55c | 32.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 57c | 31.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 40c | 28.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 28.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449d…e576backed No | 53c | 27.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72c3…a98abacked No | 64c | 27.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 74c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 57c | 23.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 22.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 71c | 18.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 71c | 18.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 71c | 18.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 17.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 72c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…68afbacked No | 70c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 102°F or higher on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.