Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7891f95755d937b0f128d2e0ab5944a50167ab4037015ac953e04145f1e45a31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 79c | 350.05$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 251.49$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 27c | 147.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 139.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 131.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 126.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x449d…e576backed No | 20c | 109.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 101.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 89.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 86.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 83.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 17c | 82.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 32c | 78.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 26c | 77.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 28c | 71.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 27c | 70.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 65.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 62c | 64.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 26c | 63.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 63c | 62.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 40c | 62.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 58.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 58.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 66c | 54.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 50.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 48.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked No | 63c | 48.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 47.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 48c | 44.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…aa1bbacked Yes | 41c | 41.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 40.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 56c | 40.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 63c | 39.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…0331backed No | 76c | 37.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 28c | 36.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 29c | 35.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 61c | 34.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 60c | 34.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 33.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2c…0854backed No | 75c | 32.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 69c | 31.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 30.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 36c | 30.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 64c | 28.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 38c | 27.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530a…bc6dbacked No | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 60c | 21.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 74c | 21.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 65c | 20.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 19.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 17.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 102°F or higher on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.