NHL · resolved market
World Championships: Czechia vs. Italy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93e3f53422c26e2e4499a7e6640f5443e11446844bf24887201b609a1c272f0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Czechiaof Czechia, Italy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a63…f3adbacked Italy | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Italy | 34c | 6,457$2,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.6 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x820a…ca12backed Czechia | 66c | 1,801$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.53 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…b97cbacked Czechia | 67c | 1,653$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551d…9326backed Czechia | 65c | 1,539$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.94 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Italy | 32c | 1,439$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.63 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Czechia | 65c | 1,186$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.13 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Italy | 11c | 1,117$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.47 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Italy | 27c | 1,024$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Czechia | 71c | 999.99$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…5e53backed Italy | 19c | 817.56$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.72 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed Italy | 5c | 722.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Czechia | 77c | 700$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.3 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Czechia | 74c | 689.47$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.17 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Italy | 4c | 589.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda3d…36b6backed Italy | 4c | 557.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafd6…743ebacked Italy | 33c | 523.81$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Italy | 30c | 505.66$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.51 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Italy | 25c | 495.06$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.84 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…05f9backed Italy | 5c | 414.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Czechia | 74c | 404.57$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.05 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Czechia | 66c | 379.45$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.02 | 200 | 47.5%95 W · 105 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…fcbdbacked Czechia | 77c | 314.76$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2557…8487backed Czechia | 75c | 159.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…22cbbacked Czechia | 66c | 152.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc9…00a6backed Czechia | 66c | 135.14$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Czechia | 79c | 125.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe635…b1a2backed Italy | 24c | 123.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c5…6483backed Czechia | 79c | 119.7$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Czechia | 66c | 103.52$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Czechia | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 181 | 49.7%90 W · 91 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Italy | 36c | 99.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed Italy | 34c | 95.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…6f99backed Czechia | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Italy | 31c | 87.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…a9a1backed Czechia | 76c | 66.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…7af9backed Italy | 33c | 62.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Italy | 27c | 59.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Italy | 31c | 58.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Czechia | 64c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Czechia | 65c | 56.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9195backed Czechia | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd4…0a6fbacked Czechia | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Italy | 23c | 44.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Italy | 23c | 42.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…75dcbacked Czechia | 74c | 40.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Czechia | 70c | 38.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Czechia | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…e21dbacked Czechia | 66c | 25.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc486…4677backed Czechia | 78c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…aadcbacked Czechia | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52c1…1084backed Czechia | 70c | 18.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.