Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93f39fa8aab8a0610132312df5fbdabfd311a25e2635af329428bcd6fcdcb734
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 61c | 1,056$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.37 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 995.63$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 946.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.15 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 669.87$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 16c | 634.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.01 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 560$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 447.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.05 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 432.4$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.29 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 73c | 412.62$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.76 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 16c | 390.31$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.94 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 33c | 345.28$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.73 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 334.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 14c | 323$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.21 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 12c | 277.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 271.1$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.8 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 245$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 13c | 209.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.06 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 15c | 195.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.12 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 61c | 157.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.89 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 38c | 156.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.31 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 14c | 132.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.84 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 20c | 125.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.86 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 41c | 119.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 25c | 118.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78f5…29f5backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 15c | 99.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 11c | 99.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 80c | 98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 95.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 12c | 92.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 14c | 91.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 13cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5c…cda7backed Yes | 14c | 84.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.71 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 80.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 63c | 77.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 16c | 74.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 20c | 64.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 31c | 62.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…efdfbacked Yes | 17c | 58.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 18c | 58.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 80c | 56.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 44c | 45.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed Yes | 35c | 31.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 26.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 70c | 18.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 76c | 18.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.