TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,975
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,290

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,975 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No12c799.45$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.944,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes41c700.14$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.571,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes29c693.39$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.1816724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3f…8af6backed No61c593.42$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.543246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No56c583.33$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.8610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No25c549.68$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.164,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No56c528.13$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.283,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6565…c235backed Yes36c450$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No67c429.99$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.24,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No5c355.15$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.139956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes43c350$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.696624.2%16 W · 50 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No49c311.32$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.432,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e50…11cdbacked No71c300.35$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.171384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+48.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes61c281.56$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.926,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No62c274.01$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.332,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No27c258$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.844,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No31c255$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.355,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No57c240.21$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8819737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes36c230.9$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.538,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c195.99$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.653,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e80…6910backed Yes34c193.93$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.165560%33 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes39c193.82$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8880130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes44c178.8$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5481558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No15c166.83$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.8377151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed No62c161.21$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.5423146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes40c154$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4539427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No62c150.93$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.873,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No38c150$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.51,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c149.08$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.875,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No60c142.63$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.442366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No51c137.66$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.871,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed Yes11c137.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.133550.4%169 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes20c132$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.44,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No10c124.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.036,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes38c123.58$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1265934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78f5…29f5backed No64c119.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+135.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No46c117.72$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.279947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No56c115.69$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.611,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9210…70a4backed Yes39c115.69$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe23a…4a36backed Yes44c113.93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes45c111.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9723129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes45c110.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9411927.7%33 W · 86 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes32c108.08$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes36c104.62$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5790555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No65c104.02$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.79,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5381848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2716733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3970148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes43c99.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No48c96.36$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0660054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a50…ee23backed Yes44c91.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.671520%3 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No59c90.72$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.794,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No71c90$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.12,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No21c86.34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.123,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4441…680abacked No13c86.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.224235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No61c83.06$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.043,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes33c81.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5f6…0be5backed No18c77.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.589043.3%39 W · 51 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No71c75$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7516453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes26c74.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8515630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No20c68.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7249543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2660…afa2backed No74c67.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.531586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick69cpaid+26.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No58c66.51$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.621,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes38c64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.322,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes36c63.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.081,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No25c62.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6456322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes43c58.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.984228.6%12 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No55c56.82$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.571,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed No65c55.97$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7419965.3%130 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed No27c55.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9817020%34 W · 136 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No23c53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8195852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed No60c52.8$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1714945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes42c51.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3385330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes24c48.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.612,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No47c45.68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0784124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No73c45.23$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2345675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes34c45.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.361,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No59c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.454,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No67c44.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7427852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes35c42.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa4…4d69backed No62c41.94$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.941250%6 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c40.51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.714,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.422744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0066…20a1backed No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.48865.9%58 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes35c39.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6817637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6986…5585backed No53c37.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.459852%51 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7688…7d0dbacked Yes31c36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.081822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes44c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.419541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes30c34.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.392,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c34.27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes40c32.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1358732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2fae…70ddbacked Yes44c30.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2740%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes37c30.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.317159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1366758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.83,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x276a…d445backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.24632.6%15 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.