Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a1d381c4b19d5860b9f7e246eab33c2ba9f1967e991d7cad8ce0e682c708ab9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 1,256$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 36c | 399.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 50c | 343.93$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.1 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 298.86$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 256.14$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 236.77$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 64c | 231.96$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 205.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 69c | 201.74$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78f5…29f5backed Yes | 40c | 199.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 49c | 199.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.53 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 189.17$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 37c | 175$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 33c | 171.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 40c | 160.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 155.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ee23backed Yes | 30c | 141.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 132.01$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 32c | 116.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 114.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 67c | 109.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 107.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 67c | 107$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 105.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 69c | 91.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 57c | 90.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 82.19$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…d445backed Yes | 36c | 79.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 60c | 77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 72.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 69.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 33c | 66.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 68c | 65.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 62.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 58.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…6b6dbacked Yes | 44c | 57.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 34c | 56.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 56.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 54.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 54.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 49.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 46.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 29c | 45.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 67c | 42.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 48c | 41.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 40.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…8853backed Yes | 33c | 38.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 66c | 33.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…7d0dbacked Yes | 43c | 32.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 70c | 28.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 68c | 25.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11b…acaebacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 71c | 24.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 71c | 21.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 65c | 20.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 65c | 19.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a2…9633backed No | 68c | 18.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 67c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b8…dd29backed No | 67c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 61c | 16.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 70c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 66c | 15.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 71c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.