Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94128992d1fd0de3adc00ff01601b699cb958630942df05df731425a5af87266
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 56c | 356.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 214 | 60.3%129 W · 85 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 308.05$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.31 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 51c | 292$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.38 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 57c | 217.55$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 208.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.57 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…c6f3backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 35c | 145$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 74c | 138.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 47c | 120$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 44c | 117.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 109.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 35c | 105.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 596 | 25%149 W · 447 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 515 | 52%268 W · 247 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 93.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 88.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 76.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 54c | 74.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 56c | 66.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 484 | 36.6%177 W · 307 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 65.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 54.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 64c | 50.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed Yes | 53c | 43.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 46c | 32.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 32.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 53c | 25.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 54c | 23.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 112 | 39.3%44 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 53c | 21.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 52c | 21.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 21.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 55c | 18.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 560 | 67.1%376 W · 184 L | +26.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.