Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ef3e90c91e64485928c578826352660c7405b67c88d7349e7d88dbed88d9119
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2812…d8fdbacked No | 1c | 2,801$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 1,385$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.62 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 62c | 1,023$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.82 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 34c | 625.66$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.61 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 361$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.09 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 358.87$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.26 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 351.59$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.14 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 29c | 315.07$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.45 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 210.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.63 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 76c | 205.36$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 354 | 21.5%76 W · 278 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 181.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 78c | 180.2$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 691 | 50.5%349 W · 342 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 56c | 175.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.13 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 174.21$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.12 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 59c | 167.44$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 37c | 150.06$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.54 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 65c | 148.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 63c | 123.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 596 | 25%149 W · 447 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 27c | 122.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 331 | 54.7%181 W · 150 L | +34.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 51c | 119.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 117.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 37c | 104.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 100.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae8…6012backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 99.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 97.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 41c | 89.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…a1c1backed Yes | 37c | 75.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 35c | 74.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 74.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 67c | 72.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 47c | 68.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 33c | 58.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 34c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 48.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 47.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 63c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 291 | 67.7%197 W · 94 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed No | 66c | 45.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 43.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 63c | 42.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 67c | 40.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 30c | 35.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 34.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 79c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 46c | 32.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 32.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 31.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 64c | 30.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…eb81backed Yes | 65c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 42c | 28.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed No | 66c | 25.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 51c | 25.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 42c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 23.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 63c | 23.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 48c | 21.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 62c | 21.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 21.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed Yes | 64c | 20.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 63c | 19.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 18.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…266bbacked Yes | 64c | 17.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 64c | 16.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.