Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9455018861051a22f5f1814561d7e93d0aed2e203e419412cc8dc587571dfb86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- EDward Gamingof EDward Gaming, XLG Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd888…3c9fbacked EDward Gaming | 70c | 34,635$24,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,378.17 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…ac55backed XLG Gaming | 49c | 22,493$11,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,010.47 | 241 | 45.2%109 W · 132 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…9f91backed XLG Gaming | 69c | 8,095$5,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,564.67 | 600 | 22.7%136 W · 464 L | -26.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…2614backed XLG Gaming | 26c | 6,335$1,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618.06 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked XLG Gaming | 29c | 5,154$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.31 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed EDward Gaming | 52c | 2,821$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.66 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed XLG Gaming | 1c | 2,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked XLG Gaming | 1c | 2,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed XLG Gaming | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed EDward Gaming | 52c | 1,979$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.76 | 409 | 44.3%181 W · 228 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8d…24dfbacked EDward Gaming | 61c | 1,796$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.39 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked XLG Gaming | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 1.4%1 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed XLG Gaming | 10c | 1,141$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked EDward Gaming | 32c | 1,120$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.23 | 888 | 44.4%394 W · 494 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked EDward Gaming | 77c | 1,118$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.63 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed EDward Gaming | 63c | 1,030$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.5 | 452 | 50%226 W · 226 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked EDward Gaming | 46c | 963.53$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.31 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked EDward Gaming | 51c | 622.06$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.13 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…fa1abacked EDward Gaming | 15c | 600$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 13cpaid | +204.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…ce77backed EDward Gaming | 15c | 600$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 12cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…dcb1backed EDward Gaming | 56c | 573.24$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed EDward Gaming | 33c | 513$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.57 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked EDward Gaming | 50c | 512$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed EDward Gaming | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…9bcdbacked XLG Gaming | 70c | 464.99$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.26 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d43…3f6cbacked XLG Gaming | 50c | 400.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…922bbacked EDward Gaming | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed EDward Gaming | 28c | 336$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.46 | 664 | 38.1%253 W · 411 L | -31.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x338c…1b33backed EDward Gaming | 50c | 325.45$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.47 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…37acbacked EDward Gaming | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 15cpaid | +266.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked EDward Gaming | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked XLG Gaming | 56c | 288.26$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.56 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked EDward Gaming | 29c | 273$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed EDward Gaming | 29c | 273$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.67 | 133 | 36.8%49 W · 84 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d5…7146backed EDward Gaming | 29c | 273$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +236%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…2748backed XLG Gaming | 40c | 221.19$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked XLG Gaming | 46c | 213$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.98 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed EDward Gaming | 25c | 206$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.14 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed EDward Gaming | 25c | 206$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.14 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed EDward Gaming | 25c | 206$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed XLG Gaming | 47c | 204.63$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked EDward Gaming | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed EDward Gaming | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…f22abacked EDward Gaming | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed EDward Gaming | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc056…e188backed EDward Gaming | 51c | 194.22$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.17 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…755fbacked EDward Gaming | 42c | 185$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.64 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed EDward Gaming | 45c | 175.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.95 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed EDward Gaming | 34c | 173$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.88 | 264 | 36%95 W · 169 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f48…0b0dbacked XLG Gaming | 48c | 152.8$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 184 | 57.1%105 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…9b64backed EDward Gaming | 21c | 144.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.81 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed EDward Gaming | 50c | 126.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed EDward Gaming | 55c | 125.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed EDward Gaming | 22c | 113$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed EDward Gaming | 56c | 100.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…9a44backed EDward Gaming | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 15cpaid | +344.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed EDward Gaming | 53c | 95.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…fb5bbacked XLG Gaming | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 349 | 54.7%191 W · 158 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked EDward Gaming | 54c | 84.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 420 | 51.9%218 W · 202 L | -21.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed EDward Gaming | 62c | 82.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 322 | 61.5%198 W · 124 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed XLG Gaming | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed EDward Gaming | 62c | 78.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a0…4d91backed XLG Gaming | 43c | 74.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed XLG Gaming | 47c | 67.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 256 | 60.9%156 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…e8acbacked XLG Gaming | 34c | 61.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked EDward Gaming | 20c | 55.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6161…c834backed XLG Gaming | 49c | 53.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked EDward Gaming | 42c | 45.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…e6ffbacked EDward Gaming | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed XLG Gaming | 40c | 44.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…4d82backed XLG Gaming | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked EDward Gaming | 61c | 39.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…3cf7backed XLG Gaming | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed XLG Gaming | 36c | 35.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 575 | 17.7%102 W · 473 L | -71.7wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…52d2backed EDward Gaming | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked EDward Gaming | 53c | 23.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed XLG Gaming | 46c | 22.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 779 | 29.5%230 W · 549 L | -72.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddc7…c4a1backed XLG Gaming | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Map Handicap: EDG (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5)XLG Gaming won
- Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China PlayoffsEDward Gaming won
- Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 WinnerXLG Gaming won
- Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 3 WinnerEDward Gaming won
- Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 4 WinnerXLG Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.