CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x945dda6dfec982f4539398ec30e829a1666ceb2de9adacccc240b3f0e5bbff6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Astralis, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Team Nemesis | 67c | 6,252$4,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.07 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…8973backed Astralis | 32c | 5,197$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.6 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Team Nemesis | 66c | 4,500$2,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.99 | 500 | 54.4%272 W · 228 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Astralis | 33c | 4,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Astralis | 32c | 3,656$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.67 | 619 | 48%297 W · 322 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Astralis | 34c | 3,232$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.04 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…c6c0backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 2,958$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Nemesis | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…9b43backed Team Nemesis | 66c | 1,000$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.5 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Astralis | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 247 | 46.6%115 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…d62cbacked Astralis | 33c | 814$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.62 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 746.24$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.8 | 597 | 55.4%331 W · 266 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…84ecbacked Astralis | 35c | 650$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 488 | 45.7%223 W · 265 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Team Nemesis | 67c | 600.53$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.88 | 991 | 48.3%479 W · 512 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 588.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.24 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Team Nemesis | 69c | 579.71$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.71 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Nemesis | 72c | 546.35$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.82 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Astralis | 28c | 528.32$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 277 | 53.8%149 W · 128 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Astralis | 32c | 525$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Astralis | 33c | 501$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.33 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Astralis | 32c | 492.58$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.63 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Astralis | 34c | 441.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf19a…2d2dbacked Team Nemesis | 69c | 409.38$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.38 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…3e90backed Team Nemesis | 67c | 389.55$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.55 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…bf89backed Astralis | 27c | 377.78$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Team Nemesis | 67c | 355$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.15 | 259 | 34%88 W · 171 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb754…96dfbacked Astralis | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c4…3212backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 317 | 61.2%194 W · 123 L | +22.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Astralis | 32c | 222.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 550 | 39.6%218 W · 332 L | -20.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked Astralis | 27c | 209.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Nemesis | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Astralis | 34c | 195.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1636…977bbacked Team Nemesis | 67c | 179.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Team Nemesis | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 148 | 20.3%30 W · 118 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Astralis | 32c | 135.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed Team Nemesis | 69c | 132.41$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 186 | 45.2%84 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…41a3backed Astralis | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Nemesis | 69c | 113.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Team Nemesis | 69c | 108.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 220 | 53.2%117 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Team Nemesis | 67c | 100.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 677 | 50.2%340 W · 337 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Astralis | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 170 | 41.2%70 W · 100 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Astralis | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Astralis | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 248 | 50.4%125 W · 123 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Astralis | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 381 | 57.7%220 W · 161 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Astralis | 34c | 86.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 489 | 48.9%239 W · 250 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Astralis | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 306 | 39.5%121 W · 185 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Astralis | 30c | 72.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 200 | 45%90 W · 110 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2a…2d64backed Astralis | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Astralis | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 53.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 609 | 54%329 W · 280 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 52.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 325 | 54.8%178 W · 147 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Team Nemesis | 69c | 44.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 191 | 51.8%99 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Team Nemesis | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 239 | 63.2%151 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Astralis | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…d77bbacked Team Nemesis | 67c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ae…18a2backed Team Nemesis | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Astralis | 32c | 37.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…45f6backed Team Nemesis | 67c | 33.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…614abacked Astralis | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Team Nemesis | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…b6d5backed Team Nemesis | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4a…7612backed Team Nemesis | 67c | 27.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Team Nemesis | 67c | 25.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 686 | 59.5%408 W · 278 L | +65.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Team Nemesis | 73c | 23.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 418 | 53.6%224 W · 194 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…1ab5backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 22.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 104 | 57.7%60 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Team Nemesis | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 207 | 42.5%88 W · 119 L | -17.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…f1aebacked Team Nemesis | 74c | 20.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Team Nemesis | 66c | 17.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Team Nemesis | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 173 | 60.1%104 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty QualifierAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Astralis - Map 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Astralis - Map 2 WinnerAstralis won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs Team Nemesis (+3.5)Team Nemesis won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs Team Nemesis (+3.5)Astralis won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.