TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Astralisof Team Nemesis, Astralis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$618,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$755,645

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $618,741 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 397 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Team Nemesis38c87,037$33,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,429.151,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba38…fb57backed Astralis60c59,476$35,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,979.041283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick74cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed Team Nemesis40c30,000$11,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,869.381752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Team Nemesis40c25,748$10,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,287.9333343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Astralis54c20,070$10,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,205.9337646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Astralis53c17,967$9,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,385.3712353.7%66 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Astralis61c11,262$6,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,359.6176058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Astralis59c11,000$6,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,48025655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Nemesis41c11,000$4,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,555.371,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Nemesis35c10,305$3,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,582.991,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Nemesis42c8,412$3,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,518.141,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Nemesis38c7,998$3,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,064.3288746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked Astralis76c7,500$5,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.862147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Astralis61c7,250$4,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,827.51,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6236…08d2backed Astralis45c6,709$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,708.576450%32 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc38…3c4cbacked Astralis60c5,500$3,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2063857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked Team Nemesis33c5,213$1,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,712.212343.9%54 W · 69 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b46…7437backed Team Nemesis40c5,017$1,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,985.3742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Astralis66c5,000$3,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,71050054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked Team Nemesis37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.976036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Nemesis39c4,973$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.3381843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed Astralis50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00021953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed Astralis55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8009550.5%48 W · 47 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Team Nemesis40c3,960$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.535,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a9…e35abacked Team Nemesis25c3,932$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9831931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Astralis60c3,872$2,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.041,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked Astralis62c3,744$2,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,422.7522449.6%111 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0478…37c3backed Astralis60c3,626$2,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,464.089952.5%52 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeac2…dddcbacked Astralis61c3,501$2,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.033729.7%11 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-35.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Astralis60c3,121$1,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.5348350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Astralis60c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20097040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Astralis61c3,000$1,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17037157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f4…8300backed Astralis60c2,925$1,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1707459.5%44 W · 30 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked Astralis60c2,894$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.64257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Astralis64c2,820$1,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.245058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Nemesis35c2,811$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.8532732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Astralis61c2,799$1,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.7621854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Nemesis41c2,796$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.681,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf0f…9f36backed Astralis61c2,754$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.042850%14 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Astralis63c2,700$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99917737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7d9d…3c52backed Astralis64c2,700$1,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.71163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Team Nemesis38c2,630$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.419346.1%89 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a8…6427backed Team Nemesis35c2,490$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.56756.7%38 W · 29 L+6.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0ac…a2c9backed Astralis65c2,477$1,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.565455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1572…7991backed Astralis62c2,408$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.396546.2%30 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fec…e218backed Astralis60c2,400$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9602751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+57.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b9…b002backed Astralis61c2,382$1,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.985459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04cf…9f77backed Astralis60c2,382$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.885160.8%31 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Astralis59c2,273$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.3338454.2%208 W · 176 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Team Nemesis39c2,271$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.471,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked Team Nemesis42c2,105$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.2419229.2%56 W · 136 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Team Nemesis52c2,038$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.2441040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Team Nemesis36c2,025$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.8443152.9%228 W · 203 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Team Nemesis46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9208670.9%61 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Team Nemesis38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.9929449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Nemesis38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.991,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Team Nemesis50c2,000$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.972,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe075…bf89backed Astralis63c1,905$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.7617146.2%79 W · 92 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0359…fda7backed Astralis55c1,895$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.953357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe480…ee6cbacked Astralis60c1,844$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.64751.1%24 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Astralis80c1,801$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.032,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa21c…1a43backed Team Nemesis57c1,740$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Astralis54c1,710$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.4911949.6%59 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Astralis64c1,682$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.0640137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Team Nemesis34c1,650$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.3324038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bc5…e563backed Astralis75c1,630$1,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.198534.1%29 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked Team Nemesis15c1,618$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.6422241.4%92 W · 130 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45c6…0123backed Team Nemesis47c1,589$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.716743.3%29 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91fe…cfd7backed Astralis63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.35444.4%24 W · 30 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Nemesis38c1,580$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.172,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71f5…1aecbacked Astralis52c1,550$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.037332.9%24 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea58…0308backed Astralis55c1,541$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.452070%14 W · 6 L+5.6wins+0.28per pick42cpaid+68.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed Astralis43c1,500$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85535953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75e1…a8a1backed Team Nemesis38c1,366$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.811936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-35.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6973…0d2ebacked Astralis74c1,352$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca2…3ff2backed Astralis62c1,350$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+49.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Astralis45c1,338$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.6916946.7%79 W · 90 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked Team Nemesis29c1,326$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.4452834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Team Nemesis40c1,300$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52021424.8%53 W · 161 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Nemesis30c1,272$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.6240253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Team Nemesis45c1,256$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.313,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Nemesis41c1,250$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.81,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64f4…b38ebacked Team Nemesis37c1,227$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45414147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e43…6583backed Astralis62c1,222$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.5413360.2%80 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Team Nemesis41c1,220$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50059755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Team Nemesis34c1,189$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.2425934%88 W · 171 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Team Nemesis36c1,182$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.4555039.6%218 W · 332 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31cb…2442backed Team Nemesis48c1,172$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.849748.5%47 W · 50 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ae…df49backed Team Nemesis49c1,170$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.17944.3%35 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Nemesis31c1,115$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.756,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Astralis60c1,087$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.0198052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Astralis47c1,064$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.8332348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a62…fc1abacked Team Nemesis27c1,050$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27913834.8%48 W · 90 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Astralis80c1,023$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.5123861.3%146 W · 92 L+0.8wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Astralis51c1,000$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.752,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed Astralis65c999.99$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3508652.3%45 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Team Nemesis50c994$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.6145646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Team Nemesis41c982$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.562,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2772…ac19backed Astralis60c980$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3928246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed Astralis59c961.59$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.2515244.7%68 W · 84 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.