TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Nemesisof Team Nemesis, Astralis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$248,938
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$316,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,938 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa22b…3525backed Team Nemesis49c20,000$9,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,200.11752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Astralis51c17,935$9,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,146.7413043.1%56 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Astralis30c15,059$4,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,521.711,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Nemesis77c7,309$5,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,681.0876058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Astralis45c6,297$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,819.847,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Astralis47c6,279$2,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,933.831,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6236…08d2backed Team Nemesis55c6,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7006450%32 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Team Nemesis47c5,014$2,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,657.681,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0478…37c3backed Astralis26c4,933$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.569952.5%52 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Astralis52c4,930$2,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,56832542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0434…438fbacked Team Nemesis70c4,229$2,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.893161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-3.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Team Nemesis47c4,050$1,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,153.925,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89cf…5f47backed Team Nemesis63c3,142$1,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.412642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Astralis35c3,007$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0561,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Team Nemesis53c3,000$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.9929449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Team Nemesis62c2,832$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.482,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5c…d8f2backed Team Nemesis76c2,730$2,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.21741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Astralis54c2,722$1,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.171,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Team Nemesis55c2,506$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.8438454.2%208 W · 176 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Team Nemesis48c2,070$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.1823949%117 W · 122 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Astralis29c2,040$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.362,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45c6…0123backed Astralis34c2,034$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7006743.3%29 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Team Nemesis70c2,000$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.5650054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Astralis53c2,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0501,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked Team Nemesis63c1,902$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.8719229.2%56 W · 136 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Astralis53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00024038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Astralis27c1,853$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.711,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Astralis53c1,844$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.4141040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2772…ac19backed Astralis51c1,831$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.978246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked Team Nemesis61c1,700$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.2922241.4%92 W · 130 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Astralis33c1,500$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49537440.4%151 W · 223 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed Astralis44c1,425$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.2635953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Astralis40c1,394$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.3588746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x609d…3fa9backed Team Nemesis74c1,360$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.199963.6%63 W · 36 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Astralis31c1,351$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.95,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf424…9723backed Team Nemesis71c1,330$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.6921135.5%75 W · 136 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Team Nemesis68c1,297$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.6823861.3%146 W · 92 L+0.8wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a62…fc1abacked Astralis39c1,264$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.7313834.8%48 W · 90 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked Team Nemesis65c1,234$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.922449.6%111 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x860a…2754backed Astralis42c1,190$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Astralis31c1,149$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.052,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked Astralis24c1,144$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.147617.1%13 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-54.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Team Nemesis47c1,087$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.0959755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Team Nemesis47c1,063$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.3917954.2%97 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Astralis31c1,063$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.414,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed Team Nemesis48c1,050$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54643455.1%239 W · 195 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Nemesis59c1,000$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.832,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22f6…eb09backed Astralis35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3507844.9%35 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Astralis27c998.98$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.936,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31c1…bc19backed Team Nemesis51c985.1$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.115962.9%100 W · 59 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Astralis53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca96…7125backed Team Nemesis64c937.5$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.5887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick59cpaid+38.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Astralis45c909.93$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.4640137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Astralis46c872.86$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.833,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Astralis20c865.56$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.85,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked Team Nemesis70c855.49$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.4946165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Astralis1c840$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e2…d472backed Astralis24c836.74$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.6726624.4%65 W · 201 L-26.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Astralis22c828$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.061,30426.5%345 W · 959 L-89.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed Astralis47c790.94$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.3916038.1%61 W · 99 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Team Nemesis74c758.62$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.4561034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x538e…c195backed Team Nemesis64c753.63$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.5616349.7%81 W · 82 L-19.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Astralis37c752.73$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.182,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24b4…7f09backed Team Nemesis69c722.44$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.441457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Team Nemesis55c700$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.2945646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7de0…7429backed Team Nemesis55c699.53$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.7910556.2%59 W · 46 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4031…c848backed Team Nemesis56c678$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.3811135.1%39 W · 72 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked Astralis14c673.54$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1239970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Astralis21c652.5$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.7280942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1e…5bb5backed Astralis48c641$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.017553.3%40 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Astralis52c625$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32561948%297 W · 322 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58a2…c1c2backed Team Nemesis48c620.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.755151%26 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Astralis46c618.37$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.451,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Astralis51c599.95$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.9899148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4419…fcf4backed Team Nemesis55c558.6$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.139063.3%57 W · 33 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed Astralis36c555.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005028%14 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Astralis41c549$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.0932732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x174e…8b63backed Team Nemesis57c530$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.94339.5%17 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Astralis39c524.1$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.1349941.7%208 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Astralis30c514.18$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.5214041.4%58 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a96…4e13backed Team Nemesis47c513.61$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.2122358.7%131 W · 92 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Astralis52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26039548.6%192 W · 203 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed Team Nemesis66c500$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.537557.3%215 W · 160 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Team Nemesis49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25576748%368 W · 399 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Astralis49c499.99$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24532832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed Team Nemesis63c499.99$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18516542.4%70 W · 95 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7253…89edbacked Team Nemesis47c499.98$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.9915449.4%76 W · 78 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ae…df49backed Team Nemesis59c499.98$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.997944.3%35 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Astralis52c499.96$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.988149.4%40 W · 41 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Astralis20c486.49$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3543152.9%228 W · 203 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Astralis16c485.69$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.624,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Astralis52c476.62$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.841,14449.4%565 W · 579 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3885…2cd8backed Astralis42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015150.3%76 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Astralis45c471.59$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.4628037.9%106 W · 174 L-17.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed Team Nemesis66c454.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.553063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8037…04fabacked Team Nemesis75c454.31$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.518048.8%39 W · 41 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-24.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5592…aedebacked Team Nemesis59c454$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.1419357%110 W · 83 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59cb…57d1backed Astralis53c449.46$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2405048%24 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef3a…dc6bbacked Team Nemesis64c446.75$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.8312352.8%65 W · 58 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Nemesis75c444.63$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.352,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.