Premier League · resolved market
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9467a4451882430ee7a4531144d424fb48d2933ec403f39c8096b4b9296fa5cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,379 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8627…5382backed No | 75c | 12,500$9,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,155.45 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 24c | 4,156$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 21c | 4,082$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.29 | 469 | 43.5%204 W · 265 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 3,515$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.07 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 25c | 3,260$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.94 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 2,898$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.37 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 76c | 2,308$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.78 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 1,994$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.61 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3111backed Yes | 28c | 1,607$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 1,556$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.51 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…1b03backed No | 73c | 1,400$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,128$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.67 | 420 | 43.8%184 W · 236 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…fbbbbacked No | 73c | 828.77$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 72c | 820.4$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.23 | 287 | 36.2%104 W · 183 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 29c | 726.72$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.75 | 173 | 27.2%47 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 74c | 687$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.76 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 24c | 625$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…ef9bbacked Yes | 12c | 571.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 526.96$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.18 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1263…fddcbacked Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e3…9b30backed Yes | 25c | 480$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +72%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…ce29backed Yes | 29c | 476.61$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 74c | 454.25$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.1 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x135b…f2f1backed Yes | 23c | 425.65$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 73c | 423$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 111 | 62.2%69 W · 42 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca66…2305backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Yes | 7c | 408$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 73c | 393.33$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e3…47acbacked Yes | 27c | 390$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 5c | 378.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked No | 78c | 330.61$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.73 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 24c | 325$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…14f5backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…575ebacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 73c | 236$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb9…884cbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 27c | 191$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 73c | 180$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 33.3%54 W · 108 L | -14.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 73c | 172$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 161.16$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 27c | 149.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908e…2291backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6976…f99bbacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 26c | 118.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Yes | 27c | 113.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 24c | 107.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 365 | 54.5%199 W · 166 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…4d27backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bb…60c2backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +94%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…8cc1backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 26c | 87.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 809 | 53.6%434 W · 375 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3d…51e3backed Yes | 24c | 84.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec2…00f6backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3149backed Yes | 40c | 69.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…092dbacked Yes | 22c | 68.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 250 | 52%130 W · 120 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 26c | 58.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…d3dbbacked Yes | 23c | 57.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9c…5a62backed Yes | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 594 | 45.5%270 W · 324 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 322 | 22.4%72 W · 250 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 69c | 45.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2951…ef00backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 77c | 38.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 419 | 56.3%236 W · 183 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 207 | 63.8%132 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 77c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 364 | 62.9%229 W · 135 L | +32.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed No | 79c | 16.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 74c | 14.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-07?Yes won
- Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.