UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94d52dc6edb45ec8c8f1a22308ff0145bc310f5077cb1ed429dcda59ff066701
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carli Judiceof Carli Judice, Jeisla Chaves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Jeisla Chaves | 16c | 39,210$6,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,273.62 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Jeisla Chaves | 13c | 14,458$1,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.13 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Jeisla Chaves | 16c | 5,443$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.84 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 3,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Jeisla Chaves | 15c | 2,200$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…cd56backed Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 2,133$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.75 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 1,940$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.06 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Jeisla Chaves | 15c | 1,849$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.92 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Jeisla Chaves | 19c | 1,473$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.71 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 1,419$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.21 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 1,419$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Jeisla Chaves | 16c | 1,288$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Jeisla Chaves | 2c | 1,015$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 999.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…208cbacked Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 978.76$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 925.12$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.27 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…afd7backed Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 823.53$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Jeisla Chaves | 16c | 704.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…8fc2backed Jeisla Chaves | 19c | 676.47$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Jeisla Chaves | 14c | 620.09$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Jeisla Chaves | 15c | 593.29$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…237ebacked Jeisla Chaves | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 526.59$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.52 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 521.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…28c5backed Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 498.53$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…7aa2backed Jeisla Chaves | 18c | 421.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Jeisla Chaves | 12c | 375.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Jeisla Chaves | 16c | 311$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Jeisla Chaves | 14c | 310$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Jeisla Chaves | 12c | 290$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…e8f9backed Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 270.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Jeisla Chaves | 19c | 267.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2202…fbeabacked Jeisla Chaves | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Jeisla Chaves | 18c | 244.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe663…e9f8backed Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 180.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Jeisla Chaves | 14c | 179.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c1…026dbacked Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Jeisla Chaves | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…1d50backed Jeisla Chaves | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Jeisla Chaves | 16c | 152.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Jeisla Chaves | 16c | 149.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | +11.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1703backed Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718f…f25abacked Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e74…6987backed Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Jeisla Chaves | 18c | 106.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed Carli Judice | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe650…0944backed Jeisla Chaves | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Jeisla Chaves | 15c | 97.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Jeisla Chaves | 11c | 93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9083…d27bbacked Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 151 | 39.7%60 W · 91 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec7…12f7backed Jeisla Chaves | 23c | 87.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…f956backed Jeisla Chaves | 18c | 84.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Jeisla Chaves | 16c | 77.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f4…1ac8backed Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 63.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Jeisla Chaves | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Carli Judice | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Carli Judice | 79c | 15.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Carli Judice win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.