NHL · resolved market
Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94e0daa772d31ff59c429dc4018e80e0650090c02aec949d9b2436a98d4acb3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over | 54c | 3,622$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.97 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked Under | 46c | 3,526$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,631.94 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 52c | 3,000$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.99 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Under | 47c | 2,437$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.99 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 1c | 2,401$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 30c | 1,163$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.43 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 4c | 823.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 48c | 800$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 5c | 670.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +8.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 6c | 586.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 80c | 300.2$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Under | 32c | 267.32$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 49c | 193.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 35c | 146.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 23c | 137.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 76c | 129.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 19c | 123.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…4fcfbacked Over | 77c | 118.34$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Under | 52c | 106.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…e7e0backed Over | 74c | 87.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 67c | 83.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 79c | 75.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Over | 69c | 75.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 74c | 72.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 51c | 57.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Under | 47c | 40.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 27c | 39.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed Under | 33c | 38.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 27c | 37.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 60c | 35.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 69c | 30.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Over | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 78c | 25.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 334 | 50.9%170 W · 164 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Over | 78c | 25.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…3932backed Over | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 75c | 22.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 75c | 17.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5this page
- Bruins vs. SabresBruins won
- Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Bruins (-2.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Bruins (-3.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.