Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94e9234775b05a0172689b76c1e8ca165076a4b4d6ca5fdaa888e4d8d09842f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ole Miss Rebelsof Arkansas Razorbacks, Ole Miss Rebels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $271,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,948 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2643…39aebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 213,496$109,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109,236.34 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Ole Miss Rebels | 49c | 135,640$66,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,541.45 | 177 | 42.9%76 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Ole Miss Rebels | 49c | 40,000$19,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,400 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Ole Miss Rebels | 49c | 18,888$9,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,632.88 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Ole Miss Rebels | 49c | 16,184$7,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,253.7 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Ole Miss Rebels | 51c | 5,504$2,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,697.04 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 4,676$2,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,275.91 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Ole Miss Rebels | 50c | 4,527$2,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,248.29 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 2,181$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.38 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 2,163$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.31 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Ole Miss Rebels | 53c | 940.95$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Ole Miss Rebels | 52c | 443.57$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.17 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Ole Miss Rebels | 51c | 378.01$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.68 | 155 | 59.4%92 W · 63 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 290.1$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.15 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 266.77$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfba…80ebbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 235.23$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 233.24$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 58c | 207.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.74 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 194.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Ole Miss Rebels | 52c | 190.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…648fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 190.28$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.04 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Ole Miss Rebels | 49c | 136.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Ole Miss Rebels | 51c | 134.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…0da9backed Ole Miss Rebels | 49c | 105.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Ole Miss Rebels | 50c | 102.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Ole Miss Rebels | 51c | 98.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +10.0wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…b99dbacked Ole Miss Rebels | 52c | 93.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…6894backed Ole Miss Rebels | 52c | 76.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Ole Miss Rebels | 50c | 76.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…ec56backed Ole Miss Rebels | 49c | 67.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Ole Miss Rebels | 49c | 54.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Ole Miss Rebels | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb267…d710backed Ole Miss Rebels | 52c | 48.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Ole Miss Rebels | 46c | 43.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…3d34backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 54c | 40.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ole Miss Rebels | 41c | 37.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…9aa5backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 34.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d81…360ebacked Ole Miss Rebels | 52c | 26.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…70a9backed Ole Miss Rebels | 52c | 23.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-8.5)this page
- Ole Miss Rebels vs. Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks won
- Ole Miss Rebels vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 155.5Over won
- Ole Miss Rebels vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 158.5Over won
- Ole Miss Rebels vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 159.5Over won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-10.5)Ole Miss Rebels won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-6.5)Ole Miss Rebels won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-9.5)Ole Miss Rebels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.