TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ole Miss Rebelsof Arkansas Razorbacks, Ole Miss Rebels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$271,948

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,948 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2643…39aebacked Arkansas Razorbacks51c213,496$109,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109,236.346245.2%28 W · 34 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-20.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Ole Miss Rebels49c135,640$66,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,541.4517742.9%76 W · 101 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Ole Miss Rebels49c40,000$19,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,40011652.6%61 W · 55 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Ole Miss Rebels49c18,888$9,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,632.8810045%45 W · 55 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Ole Miss Rebels49c16,184$7,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,253.735147.6%167 W · 184 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Ole Miss Rebels51c5,504$2,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,697.0441752.5%219 W · 198 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Arkansas Razorbacks49c4,676$2,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,275.9127755.2%153 W · 124 L+19.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Ole Miss Rebels50c4,527$2,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,248.2910543.8%46 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Arkansas Razorbacks50c2,181$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.385044%22 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Arkansas Razorbacks49c2,163$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.311,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Ole Miss Rebels53c940.95$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.311250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Ole Miss Rebels52c443.57$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.1760954.5%332 W · 277 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Ole Miss Rebels51c378.01$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.6815559.4%92 W · 63 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks49c290.1$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1590645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Arkansas Razorbacks48c266.77$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.2746246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfba…80ebbacked Arkansas Razorbacks51c235.23$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.955639.3%22 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Arkansas Razorbacks51c233.24$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.9510252%53 W · 49 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Arkansas Razorbacks58c207.98$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.742,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85a7…d9f3backed Arkansas Razorbacks51c194.83$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.137653.9%41 W · 35 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Ole Miss Rebels52c190.63$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.55234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…648fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks51c190.28$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.041936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Ole Miss Rebels49c136.51$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.625444.4%24 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Ole Miss Rebels51c134.11$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7110045%45 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x584c…0da9backed Ole Miss Rebels49c105.07$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.593560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Ole Miss Rebels50c102.49$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.259341.9%39 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Ole Miss Rebels51c98.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.576963.8%44 W · 25 L+10.0wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+32.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x93f1…b99dbacked Ole Miss Rebels52c93.12$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.74763.8%30 W · 17 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+21.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x095d…6894backed Ole Miss Rebels52c76.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Ole Miss Rebels50c76.04$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9235338.5%136 W · 217 L-18.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x62ff…ec56backed Ole Miss Rebels49c67.54$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.455743.9%25 W · 32 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked Ole Miss Rebels49c54.19$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6421850.9%111 W · 107 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Ole Miss Rebels50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2541554.2%225 W · 190 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb267…d710backed Ole Miss Rebels52c48.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.222100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Ole Miss Rebels46c43.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5189146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a1…3d34backed Arkansas Razorbacks54c40.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.11963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+26.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Arkansas Razorbacks49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.613147.3%62 W · 69 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Ole Miss Rebels41c37.65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2212,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc283…9aa5backed Arkansas Razorbacks51c34.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Arkansas Razorbacks49c29.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.771655.3%396 W · 320 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d81…360ebacked Ole Miss Rebels52c26.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.71040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f95…70a9backed Ole Miss Rebels52c23.96$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.