Serie A · resolved market

US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94f20f4d3e35ceea8a8479620e2c1dc232c5b933f9039409728c9945fe9c70f1

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $14,490
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,817

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,490 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Serie A
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4133…5e70backed Under	23c	4,211$983 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$982.92	969	42.3%410 W · 559 L	-13.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	79c	1,826$1,447 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$379.2	2,538	45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	15c	707.21$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.03	1,981	39.8%788 W · 1,193 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b85…e89abacked Over	75c	666.67$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.67	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.21per pick	59cpaid	+43.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dad…a040backed Over	80c	500.16$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.16	112	68.8%77 W · 35 L	+4.0wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over	72c	500$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140	154	59.7%92 W · 62 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Under	9c	472.6$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.53	31	29%9 W · 22 L	+4.8wins	+0.15per pick	14cpaid	+275.7%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over	74c	365.74$271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.09	103	61.2%63 W · 40 L	-7.3wins	-0.07per pick	68cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2969…6d76backed Under	34c	355.88$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8942…1e76backed Over	77c	324.68$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.68	79	54.4%43 W · 36 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over	79c	317.72$251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.72	143	51%73 W · 70 L	-10.8wins	-0.08per pick	59cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under	25c	303.67$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.92	366	30.9%113 W · 253 L	+10.7wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x895c…ead8backed Over	75c	262.67$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.67	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+38.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc4…63f6backed Under	21c	240$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.95	60	50%30 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d55…cd90backed Over	77c	207.79$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.79	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+57.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	74	12.2%9 W · 65 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+76%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9061…9510backed Over	74c	171$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.46	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a8f…386cbacked Over	75c	162.67$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.67	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.24per pick	74cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under	25c	161.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.42	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Over	75c	153.33$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.33	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	26c	146.5$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.09	387	44.7%173 W · 214 L	-10.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc87…d938backed Over	70c	142.86$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.86	51	56.9%29 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x802f…e008backed Over	75c	133.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.33	133	66.2%88 W · 45 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	66cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f9b…555cbacked Over	75c	133.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.33	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	61cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22eb…59d6backed Over	77c	129.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.08	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	80c	129.07$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.81	310	51.6%160 W · 150 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under	23c	125$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.75	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under	25c	115.93$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.98	233	53.6%125 W · 108 L	+14.7wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc32e…203dbacked Over	75c	108$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d29…5111backed Over	67c	100$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	30	66.7%20 W · 10 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x649a…02afbacked Over	75c	100$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	19	78.9%15 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	72cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over	68c	100$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	154	50%77 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under	26c	99.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	179	55.3%99 W · 80 L	+7.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	20c	99.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.54	910	43.3%394 W · 516 L	-14.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	30c	90.03$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.1	208	41.8%87 W · 121 L	-10.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-14%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	32c	83.64$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.76	346	43.4%150 W · 196 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over	75c	77.33$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.33	179	58.7%105 W · 74 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	63cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6132…7665backed Over	74c	77$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.02	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e64…553ebacked Under	27c	70$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.22per pick	28cpaid	+68.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Over	73c	70$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.9	144	52.1%75 W · 69 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over	75c	59.45$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.86	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+4.7wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f50…d342backed Under	22c	58.05$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.67	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-3.2wins	-0.14per pick	40cpaid	-23%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x81f2…625bbacked Under	27c	55.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.22per pick	28cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under	24c	54.08$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.98	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0345…865cbacked Over	75c	53.85$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.46	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Under	20c	51.51$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	64	39.1%25 W · 39 L	-4.7wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Under	27c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb456…1774backed Over	78c	49.99$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	30	50%15 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x608b…6e88backed Under	26c	47$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.4wins	-0.30per pick	55cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Over	68c	44.12$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.12	66	59.1%39 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	25c	41.19$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	229	47.6%109 W · 120 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ac…e166backed Over	76c	39.47$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.47	31	80.6%25 W · 6 L	+4.3wins	+0.14per pick	67cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Under	27c	39$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.53	72	45.8%33 W · 39 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed Over	71c	38.03$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.03	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	-5.1wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-34%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over	67c	37.31$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.31	151	41.7%63 W · 88 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over	75c	33.33$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.33	170	58.2%99 W · 71 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x450f…9479backed Over	73c	28.96$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.89	40	70%28 W · 12 L	+4.7wins	+0.12per pick	58cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd995…24dbbacked Over	75c	26.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.67	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	71cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over	75c	26.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.67	152	53.9%82 W · 70 L	-14.7wins	-0.10per pick	64cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5f03…f7f8backed Over	79c	25.32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.32	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	70cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	69	72.5%50 W · 19 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	68cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe398…ee2ebacked Over	78c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.5	43	65.1%28 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	66cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5this page
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)Juventus FC won
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5Over won
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5Under won
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event