Mls · resolved market
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x951e0cdc9a9d7b93cbbeae9b0e5c311cea40d944f1dec3290da9804df1c5a3dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 6c | 17,890$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.39 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Yes | 3c | 5,743$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea57…e1debacked Yes | 5c | 1,800$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.97 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 36c | 555.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 6c | 340.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 37c | 312.91$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.77 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed No | 71c | 281.95$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 38c | 241.4$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.73 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 14c | 224.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 220.9$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Yes | 38c | 220$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 38c | 219.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 70c | 208.34$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed No | 61c | 184.56$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 70c | 180$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 63c | 178.39$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed No | 78c | 140.13$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 62c | 138.23$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 31c | 132.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…b79fbacked Yes | 30c | 128$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 71c | 126.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 117.18$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 63c | 103$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 58c | 86.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 14c | 84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked No | 71c | 81.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 79.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 55c | 69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 70c | 68.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 70c | 65.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 78c | 62.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 70c | 60.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 55.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 39c | 54.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed No | 71c | 50.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 30c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Yes | 30c | 47.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Yes | 30c | 47.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes | 30c | 47.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked Yes | 29c | 45.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…7dccbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 63c | 32.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 72c | 26.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked No | 71c | 25.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked No | 71c | 25.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed No | 71c | 23.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…18f9backed No | 71c | 23.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…5bb7backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked No | 70c | 19.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will Charlotte FC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw?No won
- Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.