Us Politics · resolved market
Trump trade deal before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9524ef9edc6d99fb2eea5d5387bf033c430e88c243768c541d5f08f0f266fb87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $169,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 10c | 18,319$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750.23 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 14c | 8,125$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.04 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 14c | 4,991$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.05 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 4,788$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 12c | 4,481$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.58 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 13c | 4,219$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.2 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 4,065$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 3,470$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 14c | 3,427$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.28 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed No | 3c | 3,345$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 3c | 3,300$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 14c | 3,132$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.6 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 15c | 2,831$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.12 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…5864backed No | 17c | 2,338$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 13c | 2,325$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.73 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 15c | 2,324$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 16c | 2,271$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.62 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 5c | 1,980$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.04 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe449…8065backed No | 12c | 1,642$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked No | 12c | 1,430$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 18c | 1,120$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.29 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c34…c8b8backed No | 7c | 1,069$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…b470backed No | 19c | 980$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…6977backed No | 21c | 825.57$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 18c | 700$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fae…1675backed No | 20c | 631.5$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed No | 10c | 600.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 80c | 599.99$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.87 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 16c | 566$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.37 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 11c | 514.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 13c | 463.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 23c | 400$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 12c | 396.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked No | 7c | 390.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed No | 16c | 363.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…9be6backed No | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed No | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca7…81ddbacked No | 18c | 280.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa14d…48bcbacked No | 11c | 268.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…f94bbacked No | 21c | 242.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed No | 6c | 227.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked No | 5c | 222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.34per pick | 55cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdd…31acbacked No | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 15c | 219.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed No | 7c | 163.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 13c | 161.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d32…cec3backed No | 18c | 147.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…0ffdbacked No | 16c | 142.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked No | 20c | 101.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…ed0cbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…ecd4backed No | 20c | 99.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 16c | 95.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02fc…0853backed No | 17c | 93.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…a2cfbacked No | 17c | 86.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…b754backed No | 17c | 78.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x644c…0dbfbacked No | 14c | 76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…cc10backed Yes | 78c | 69.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 80c | 56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 79c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.