Movies · resolved market
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x952b6ce45b19880532ada8550332f33321041e43bc495991001520d343ac4d70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 9c | 1,330$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1930…691cbacked No | 23c | 1,298$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 14c | 1,240$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.48 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 13c | 1,027$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.76 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Yes | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed No | 21c | 831$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 5c | 788.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked No | 14c | 556$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 13c | 480$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 77c | 394$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.62 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 14c | 391.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 14c | 376$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 14c | 367$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked No | 13c | 361$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…6e2ebacked No | 13c | 354$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked No | 14c | 336$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 8c | 329$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed Yes | 77c | 298$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 274.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb289…9403backed No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 13c | 247.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 14c | 235$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…7da2backed Yes | 79c | 225$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 13c | 190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 79c | 162.23$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 13c | 147.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 12c | 135$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 131.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 120.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 1,223 | 17.8%218 W · 1,005 L | -125.3wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9217…1b00backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 196 | 40.3%79 W · 117 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf434…c6aabacked Yes | 76c | 91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 17c | 80.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked No | 13c | 78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 16c | 76.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…b16abacked Yes | 76c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 20c | 60.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 75c | 23.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?this page
- Will Emma Stone win Best Actress in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Gwyneth Paltrow win Best Actress in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Teyana Taylor win Best Actress in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.