Lol · resolved market
Will BNK FEARX win First Stand 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9544a605df7db673a2b5ed8d87ead57884ae9d470603b93e9a40babed8e714a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,038 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x581d…2b06backed Yes | 6c | 12,904$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.35 | 480 | 35.4%170 W · 310 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…3741backed Yes | 3c | 7,581$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.11 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,822$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…5172backed Yes | 5c | 5,182$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.47 | 436 | 40.6%177 W · 259 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Yes | 6c | 2,685$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.8 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 220 | 35.9%79 W · 141 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…ac64backed Yes | 2c | 1,531$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +48%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 3c | 1,450$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…3d96backed Yes | 4c | 1,070$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 481 | 43.2%208 W · 273 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 912.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf06…c9ffbacked Yes | 6c | 750.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 633 | 52%329 W · 304 L | +39.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…ed3dbacked Yes | 6c | 675.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…53afbacked Yes | 3c | 667.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f49…463abacked Yes | 5c | 641.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 200 | 45%90 W · 110 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…1a19backed Yes | 10c | 578.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 380 | 34.7%132 W · 248 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 7c | 571.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x416b…bad6backed Yes | 3c | 500.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 337 | 36.5%123 W · 214 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6290…3fd7backed Yes | 5c | 461.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 4c | 452.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 420 | 55.2%232 W · 188 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8e…3286backed Yes | 4c | 298.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e0…ffbebacked Yes | 8c | 275$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 87 | 67.8%59 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 8c | 264.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee36…bebebacked Yes | 6c | 245.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf45a…5343backed Yes | 5c | 236.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…d7ebbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77b…29a8backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 199.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 180.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 441 | 28.1%124 W · 317 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7311…2e0cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BNK FEARX win First Stand 2026?this page
- Will Bilibili Gaming win First Stand 2026?Yes won
- Will G2 Esports win First Stand 2026?No won
- Will Gen.G win First Stand 2026?No won
- Will JD Gaming win First Stand 2026?No won
- Will LOUD win First Stand 2026?No won
- Will LYON win First Stand 2026?No won
- Will Team Secret Whales win First Stand 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.