Lol · resolved market
Will JD Gaming win First Stand 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dae79ad845d141fd3d3d2a42e17de6a0933a04bb14fb4c2fa599ac5859ed8a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,290 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 1c | 16,915$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.94 | 941 | 34.5%325 W · 616 L | +33.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…2b06backed Yes | 2c | 10,272$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.11 | 480 | 35.4%170 W · 310 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…ed3dbacked Yes | 6c | 5,452$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.39 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…6019backed Yes | 3c | 3,668$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,138$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e89…bb29backed Yes | 5c | 2,967$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.68 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 3c | 2,890$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa77b…29a8backed Yes | 2c | 2,685$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,093$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 903 | 48.4%437 W · 466 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…b2b6backed Yes | 2c | 1,836$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc761…4fc8backed Yes | 3c | 1,743$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e0…ffbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,337$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 87 | 67.8%59 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed Yes | 1c | 921.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 440 | 47.5%209 W · 231 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 6c | 918.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 4c | 900$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,598 | 42.4%677 W · 921 L | -17.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 895.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Yes | 4c | 851.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 756 | 30%227 W · 529 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…c88dbacked Yes | 2c | 785.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5b…3772backed Yes | 3c | 739.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…1bc7backed Yes | 4c | 670.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 149 | 36.9%55 W · 94 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…719ebacked Yes | 2c | 629.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf094…5290backed Yes | 2c | 610$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 585.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 3c | 572.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 4c | 509.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…73e5backed Yes | 10c | 507.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…ff7dbacked Yes | 5c | 435.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 230 | 23%53 W · 177 L | -19.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Yes | 6c | 425.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 301 | 39.5%119 W · 182 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 3c | 422.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 214 | 57.5%123 W · 91 L | +13.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6846…a82fbacked Yes | 4c | 341.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 4c | 323.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077e…1fb0backed Yes | 8c | 266.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 58.1%108 W · 78 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 5c | 262.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee36…bebebacked Yes | 4c | 258.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 5c | 241.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2,222 | 37.4%832 W · 1,390 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a76…a671backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JD Gaming win First Stand 2026?this page
- Will BNK FEARX win First Stand 2026?No won
- Will Bilibili Gaming win First Stand 2026?Yes won
- Will G2 Esports win First Stand 2026?No won
- Will Gen.G win First Stand 2026?No won
- Will LOUD win First Stand 2026?No won
- Will LYON win First Stand 2026?No won
- Will Team Secret Whales win First Stand 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.