Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x957fb44f54ea2b765456867b41cda307a2530c996bfdc558c2f56260a8b2b4f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe58b…3980backed Yes | 0c | 11,021$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 0c | 6,444$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,427$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 37c | 672.25$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 24c | 654.27$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.49 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 6c | 189.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 179.97$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 167.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 159.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 9c | 142.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 127.82$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed Yes | 40c | 123.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 116.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 55c | 85.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 17c | 81.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 66c | 74.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 69.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked No | 67c | 61.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 47.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 32c | 45.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…f39bbacked Yes | 37c | 39.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9282…cf25backed No | 65c | 37.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 33.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 32.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 36c | 31.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…6cc3backed No | 64c | 31.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb907…5dbcbacked No | 67c | 29.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 27.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 69c | 26.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 65c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 24.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 20.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 19.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 57c | 17.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 67c | 15.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.