NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Wild: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95c96e37a598e95685e630a05dae3505a9ef8b5a63553f112f4345ba1e2d5e52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Under | 26c | 1,201$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.71 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 74c | 734.65$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.01 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 62c | 527.72$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.53 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 41c | 509.96$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…3e5cbacked Under | 34c | 276.18$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 74c | 275.11$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 73c | 266.67$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Under | 27c | 266.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 76c | 252.36$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Over | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 75c | 162.19$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 32c | 140.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 36c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Over | 75c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3468…e71ebacked Under | 38c | 55.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Over | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 26c | 48.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 67c | 42.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 26c | 42.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…8e23backed Under | 25c | 41.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Under | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e4…8282backed Over | 75c | 25.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 76c | 23.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 74c | 23.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 63c | 22.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 73c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 76c | 19.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +8.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 76c | 19.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 64c | 19.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Wild: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Wild won
- Stars vs. WildWild won
- Stars vs. Wild: O/U 5.5Over won
- Stars vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Over won
- Stars vs. Wild: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.